It's Pujols First, Then Everyone Else

  Since 2001, Albert Pujols has been one of the best hitters in baseball. He has won a Rookie of the Year Award along with two National League M.V. P. Awards. So really, to say he has been "one of the best" hitters is selling him short. Actually, Albert Pujols has been the best hitter in baseball over the last eight years. Pujols has been able to combine extreme power with a consistent, discerning eye at the plate. Even this season, he is on track to becoming the Triple Crown in the National League. To say that Pujols is great is a statement, the question here is can his stats back it up?

The numbers that Pujols has compiled in 2009 are somewhat surprising considering how disappointing the rest of the line-up around him has been. Teammates like Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel have struggled all season and have provided virtually no help. To make matters worse, another power hitter, Troy Glaus, has been injured and hasn't played a single game in 2009. The second highest OPS on the St. Louis roster, after Pujols, belongs to the light hitting utility infielder, Brendan Ryan. So it is somewhat shocking that opponents have actually given Pujols anything to hit at all rather than pitch to the rest of the struggling line up.

To be able to look at Pujols stats in the correct context, let's compare him using the MLB baseball average. Pujols' stats through June 2009 compared to the Major League average. A couple of things that stand out is that his Isolated Power is nearly three times higher than the league average and that despite his power, he strikes out (K%) less than the average. The final two columns showcase Pujols' talent. Zone% is the percentage of pitches a hitter sees inside the strike zone. As you can see, Pujols is given fewer pitches inside the strike zone compared to most hitters. But his Contact%, which measures the total amount of contact that a hitter makes, is much greater than the MLB average. That means that even though Pujols is receiving fewer hittable pitches, the ones that are left in the strike zone rarely escape him.

Pujols' talent is very rare. Some have gone as far as to say that we are witnessing the second coming of Ted Williams. Williams is considered one of the greatest hitters in the history of baseball and is the last player to hit over .400 for a season. Pujols has many of the same skills that Williams had and when compared by age, you will find they are quite similar.

Going back to the question, does Pujols' stats back up his claim to greatness? Yes, and then some. Despite being the main focus of opposing pitching staffs and not having much help around him, Pujols is still able produce incredible numbers. It is beginning to become apparent that Albert Pujols is in a league all his own and it is not even close.

A Rant For PETCO Park

Since its opening in 2004, PETCO Park in San Diego has been know as one of the most challenging hitters parks in baseball. With this monstrous park as their home, the Padres have struggled to score runs consistently while their pitching staff has found a cozy home in PETCO. Some people within baseball have openly wondered if the dimensions have become a hindrance to the success of the Padres' organization. But is PETCO Park really the reason why the Padres' offense has continued to struggle year in and year out?

Now, the point of this article is not to dispute whether or not PETCO is truly a pitchers park or not. Mathematically, it is. The combination of extensive dimensions and heavy ocean air make it difficult for baseballs to clear the fences. However, with these hitting drawbacks, it is important to note that in the last five years, the Padres haven't exactly assembled the best hitting line up in baseball. In fact, outside of All-Star Adrian Gonzalez, the Padres have incorporated players that were either washed up or in the declining phases of their careers. Players like Brian Giles, Phil Nevin, Mark Loretta and Ryan Klesko or unfilled rookie prospects Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley have been slotted in the heart of the Padre batting order. As you can see, it wasn't exactly the Murderers Row of line-ups.

This is exactly why it is important that when Park Factors Ratings are determined, the home team does play a small role in figuring whether a park favors hitters, pitchers or is neutral. For example, during the 80s the Metrodome in Minnesota was considered to be a hitter's park. Because of this it was given the nickname "The Homer Dome." Those Twins teams were built around sluggers like Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, Gary Gaetti and Tom Brunansky. All of these hitters went over twenty-five home runs in 1987. Fast forward to the 2000s and the Metrodome actually has qualified as a neutral park. The park dimensions didn't change and because it's a dome, there weren't any shifts in wind patterns. So why the change? The Minnesota Twins teams of the 2000s have started to feature a much better pitching staff than the teams of 80s, leading to the alteration of the Metrodome's Park Factor Rating.

Buy & Sell

Note: Ownership is based in Yahoo! Leagues.

Lance Berkman (.239/.372/.479, 97% Ownership)

Although Lance Berkman's batting average has been a disappointment this season, his BB/K rate is excellent and the power is still there. There are a couple of signs that Berkman could be headed for a big second half of the season. Even though his BABIP stands at .247, Berkman has never had a BABIP below .300 in a season. This means that he has been hitting in a lot of bad luck so far in 2009 despite having virtually the same LD% as 2008. This could be a complete opposite from last season where Berkman raked during the first half and leveled off over the summer.

Adam LaRoche (.267/.363/.498, 31% Ownership)

A classic slow starter, LaRoche got off to better start this season only to tail off during April and May. A potential free agent next year, LaRoche has been rumored as the next Pittsburgh Pirate to be shipped out of town. That leaves a question about what hitting environment he will be in after the All-Star break. But for his career, LaRoche has a second half line of .297/.360/.548 so if he is available on the waiver wire, now might be the time to stash him on your bench.

Aaron Harang (5-7, 3.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 93.1 IP, 77 K, 82% Ownership)

From 2005-2007, Harang went from an under the radar to dominant fantasy pitcher. He suffered through a painful 2008, which scared off a lot of owners. It now appears that Harang is back to those previous levels. His K/9 and BB/9 rates are right in line with what he was doing in his past outstanding seasons. Going forward it looks like he can maintain this level of success because his FIP is almost exactly the same as his current ERA and his BABIP is right around league average. Acquiring Harang now will give your pitching staff a boost for the second half of the season.

Michael Bourn (.294/.369/.412, 62% Ownership)

The Bourn Ultimatum has been pretty impressive so far this season considering how awful he was last year. The reason you have Bourn on your roster is for stolen bases, but if Bourn can't get on base, it makes that skill null and void. With that said, Bourn is still striking out quite a bit. His BABIP of .369 is well above the league average, which means he has hit in a lot of luck so far this season. Another concern is that Bourn is hitting fewer ground balls this season and not trying to leg out base hits. I know some players can make dramatic improvements from year to year, but right now it appears that Bourn is playing way above his head.

Mark Reynolds (.263/.350/.546, 86% Ownership)

This slugging Diamondback has shown some improved skills so far in 2009. Despite his development, there are still some questions about his continued production. Obviously, his strikeouts are the most glaring worry as he is striking out 37.4% of the time. That tells us that his batting average will most likely continue to come down quite a bit. If that is the case, no matter how many home runs he hits, that low batting average will be a hindrance to your roster. One other point, Reynolds is also hitting fewer fly balls this season, which could lead to fewer home runs during the summer months.

Rick Porcello (8-4, 3.55 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 78.2 IP, 44 K, 56% Ownership)

Porcello has produced 8 wins through June 2009 despite being in only his second professional season. Not known as a strikeout pitcher, he uses a heavy sinker to get outs. Although Porcello has done well so far, there are many glaring question marks about him going forward. His BABIP is well below the league average and there is a huge discrepancy between his ERA and his 4.82 FIP. But the main thing to remember is that he is a very young pitcher and the Tigers are going to have to monitor his innings during the second half of the season. If this is a case, he will have fewer starts to make an impact on your roster.

Name to remember...Rajai Davis, Oak.-OF. For the time being, Davis has won the centerfield job in Oakland. With Rajai on your roster, he brings the threat of stolen bases as he stole 29 while playing for San Francisco and Oakland last year. Normally the Athletics have shown a distain for the stealing bases, but they must feel safe in letting Davis run as he has 9 SB in thirteen attempts so far this season. If he can start to get on base a little more, the more of an opportunity he will have to use his speed to aid in the stolen base category.

by Matt "Hack" Hackenmiller

Buy & Sell

By Matt "Hack" Hackenmiller

Note: Ownership is based in Yahoo! Leagues.

Adrian Beltre (.261/.293/.383, 57% Ownership)

The Seattle third baseman got off to a slow start the first couple of months of the season. But in the last few weeks, Beltre has begun to get it rolling as he has had fourteen hits in his last ten games and there are some positive signs ahead. For his career, Beltre has a .281/.336/.490 line after the All Star break and he is in a contract year. He won't reach the status that he reached in the contract year of 2004, but there is still incentive enough for Beltre to keep it going.

Ian Stewart (.222/.308/.488, 43% Ownership)

Stewart has taken over the third base job in Colorado after the benching of Garrett Atkins. It is always a good strategy to have a Rockies position player on your roster, but what makes Stewart the most valuable is that in the Yahoo! format, he is eligible at 2B and 3B. The batting average isn't all that appealing,, however, the Rockies will be playing more games at home this month, so that stat will be on the rise. To be able to put a player with a slugging percentage close to .500 in your middle infield slot will only make your roster that much better.

Javier Vazquez (4-6, 3.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 92.1 IP, 112 K, 92% Ownership)

The move from Cellular Field to Atlanta has agreed with Vazquez as his WHIP and ERA are considerably down this season. It seems like Vazquez gets lost every season when discussing the best pitchers in baseball, but he has thrown over two hundred innings the last four seasons and has struck out over 190 batters five different times in his career. His BABIP is a bit low, but nothing really that concerning since he has only walked 18 batters all season. His lack of name recognition may allow you to pilfer him from an unsuspecting owner.

Ben Zobrist (.310/.420/.678, 85% Ownership)

Where did this come from? Zobrist has gone from a utility player to possible All Star for the Tampa Bay Rays. Let's see, why don't I believe in this turn around? Here are a couple of reasons: his Isolated Power of .368 is higher than the likes of Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, and Raul Ibanez. Zobrist's HR/FB rate of 25% is higher than Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun. So we are talking about a fringe major league player producing stats equal to or better than some of the best in the game. Now might be the time to move Zobrist before he turns back into a pumpkin.

Justin Upton (.308/.391/567, 89% Ownership)

Upton has begun to live up to some of the lofty expectations that have been placed upon him the last few years. Although, I think he will still be productive the rest of the season, there are some warning signs that he may experience a drop off. He has an alarming strikeout rate of 27% and his .380 BABIP is way over the league average, so there will be an adjustment period ahead. I can understand why managers wouldn't want to trade away someone like Upton. He is considered one of the best young players in the game, but his production is bound to fall off at some point this year.

Matt Cain (9-1, 2.39 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 86.1 IP, 68 K, 93% Ownership)

Cain has been able so far this season. He has teamed with Tim Lincecum to form one of the best young pitching duos in baseball. However, there are many concerns as Cain's strike out rate has dropped from last season while his home run rate has risen. Also, he has a high strand rate meaning that he is allowing runners to get on base, but is getting out of some tough jams. Over the course of the season, more of those runners tend to score which will affect his ERA and possibly how many wins his receives. So far this season, Cain has produced like a number one starter after he was drafted to be a number two or three. Look for him to return to those draft predictions.

Name to remember...Andrew Miller, FLA.-SP. The highly regarded lanky left-hander has had some positive moments this season. The strike out potential is there, but control is still an issue as evidence by his 43/27 K/BB rate. The more that he gets to pitch at the major league level, though, the comfortable he looks as he has turned in three optimistic starts in a row. He is still a match up type pitcher and because of the control problems, those match ups can feel like a roller coaster at times. But he is still someone to target for later in the season and going forward into next year.

You may be wondering why Zobrist is on the "Sell" list so soon after a post the other day that encouraged readers to pick him up.  Well, the simple answer is Hack and Johnny Archive don't always agree, but we are both willing to support our positions.

-Johnny Archive   

The Decline of Ichiro?

by Matt "Hack" Hackenmiller

Ichiro Suzuki is widely considered one of the top outfielders in baseball. Since coming to the United States in 2001, he has displayed many impressive abilities. These talents have made Ichiro a fan favorite all around baseball. In recent years, however, Ichiro's remarkable skill set has shown a bit of deteriation. Although still productive, we must begin to question if Ichiro has begun the decline phase of his legendary career.

Ichiro exploded onto the 2001 baseball scene as he won both the American League Rookie of the Year and M.V.P. in the same season. As impressive as this is, his rookie status was based on his introduction to American baseball. But it easy to forget that when he came to the majors, he was already a star of the Japanese Leagues and that he was at the magical age of twenty-seven. That is not to say that Ichiro's initial success was expected. Actually, it was quite the opposite as he was the first position player from over seas to be given a starting job in the majors. I am sure the Mariners are glad that they made that decision.

With each passing season, Ichiro continued to produce amazing stats. In fantasy baseball, he preceded to move up draft boards each season as well. Because of Ichiro's combination of batting average and stolen bases, he was a player that could help a fantasy team win several of the standard offensive categories. . However, as we begin to examine his stats more closely, (see chart below) Ichiro's pace in several of those categories has begun to slow down. If he continues along the same course, Ichiro will set career lows in runs scored and stolen bases.

This is significant because these are two of the main categories that managers count on Ichiro to help them win.

On the other hand, is this really surprising? Ichiro turns thirty-five this season and no matter how good of shape or athlete he is, age is bound to catch up with him sooner or later. The total ineffectiveness of the Seattle Mariners plays into this as well. The Mariners' offense has been one of the worst in baseball the past few seasons. This significantly reduces the probability that once Ichiro reaches bases he will be driven in. There is also the theory that with the Mariners being so bad record wise, Ichiro won't be stealing many bases in an effort to lessen the wear and tear on his body. This may make sense in the "real" baseball world, but this type of theory is a killer for fantasy baseball. These particulars should tell us that Ichiro isn't having just a bad season or two. Instead, this can be considered a definite downward trend in Ichiro's career.

There comes a point with veterans players where they are drafted on name recognition alone. This why players like Carlos Zambrano, Vladimir Guerrero, and Magglio Ordonez get drafted as early as they do. Most fantasy managers feel comfortable and are familiar with these players and think that these types of players can return to their past glories.

Ichiro is still more than a serviceable fantasy outfielder. But as the stolen bases dwindle, he is starting to turn into a one-category star. While that batting average is still very nice, most fantasy baseball managers expect more from a player who is draft as high as Ichiro. It is possible that Ichiro could find the fountain of youth and return his number to the 2001 levels, but it is more likely that we are witnessing the decline of the magnificent Ichiro Suzuki.