April 2009

Good News, Bad News 04/29/09

 

Good News – Los Angeles is still a city.
Bad News – April 29th marks the day of the LA riots many years ago.

Good News – The US Supreme Court has ruled broadcasters can be fined for cursing on “live” T.V.
Bad NewsMatt Vasgersian, of the MLB Network, just dropped 2 Tax Brackets.

Good News – “Matty V”, who is know for his humor and wit, tried interjecting some humor into the video of Rockies OF Brad Hawpe getting hit in the neck/head with a baseball and having to leave the field on a stretcher.
Bad News – Sometimes humor is just simply not appropriate, especially when your “joke” has a hint of racism.

Good News - We’ve made it to the 100th day of Barack Obama’s presidency!
Bad News – This is a very sad day for all those “Tea-Baggers”.


Smokey.jpgGood News
General Motors has announced a detailed plan to try and prevent the company from going into bankruptcy.
Bad News – They’re going to kill “The Bandit’s” car! GM will phase out several brands, including Pontiac — who made the Trans Am, which is the type of car Burt Renoylds drove in those Smokey and the Bandit movies.

Good News – From what I’ve heard, the Fantasy Sports Channel’s coverage (which included 2 Johnny Archive shows) of the NFL Draft went well this past weekend.
Bad News -  Apparently, ESPN’s coverage of the NFL Draft that includes Chris Berman — who has been thought of as the king of draft for many years — has lost some of it’s coolness.  Many sports fans are turning to alternatives like the NFL Network and The Fantasy Sports Channel at BlogTalkRadio for a fresh look at NFL Draft coverage.

Good News – I bit the bullet on Carlos Gomez and waived him in a couple leagues, the ones with shorter benches.
Bad News – It’s always hard when you tout a guy all spring and he gets off to a slow start, but better to look at the situaton openly, rather than to keep a guy out of pride.

Good News – Twins All-star catcher Joe Mauer is close to returning, which means owners who gambled on him have to feel good.
Bad News – A ton of owners who tried to avoid the risk of Mauer and take “safer” picks like Brian McCann, Ryan Doumit and Chris Iannetta are being reminded why Catcher is such a tough position for fantasiers to handicap.


Mission accomplished.jpgGood News
– New York City residents were in no danger from that huge government airplane that was buzzing the city the other day with 2 military jets following close behind.
Bad News – Everyone remembers the George Bush photo-op when he appeared in front of that “Mission Accomplished” banner, but this one was worse.

Good NewsTwitter is really getting popular and you can find a lot of people using it now-a-days.
Bad News – Sadly, the spam is increasing so fast that it’s almost making Twitter overly trendy and useless.

Good News – The government seems to be doing a lot to prepare the citizens in case this Swine flu starts to get out of control in the United States.
Bad News – Some news outlets are spedning way too much time on the political correctness of what to call the flu.  Swine-Flu insults pigs, Mexican-Flu insults Mexicans so now they’re call it a bunch of numbers.  Bar codes are people too!

Have a great day!

-Johnny Archive

‘Hack’ Backs Zack

Our friend Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller checks in with his latest article.  Today he talks about the ultra-hot, Zack Greinke.

 

The Next Cy Young Award Winner

Zack Greinke will win the American League Cy Young Award this year. Mark it down. Usually when I make a prediction I have some reservation about whether it will come through or not. But with this one, I have no doubt. Greinke has had a great start this year, but my prediction is not based on only what I’ve seen this year. It’s a combination of what he’s done over the last couple of years elevating himself to become one of the best pitchers in the American League

Zack Greinke.jpgGreinke was a high draft pick for the Kansas City Royals in 2002. He quickly rose through their minor league system and reached the majors in 2004. Greinke pitched well and looked to be the future ace of the staff, but then he went 5-17 in 2005. Then during spring training in 2006, Greinke suffered a mental breakdown. He spent the majority of the 2006 season being treated for depression and a social anxiety disorder. When Greinke finally returned to the team, the Royals used him out of the bullpen in nonpressure situations. Since then, however, Greinke has improved as a pitcher. In 2008 he won thirteen games and looked like the future ace that was envisioned when he first came up from the minors.

Predicting the winner of the Cy Young Award is not always an exact science. There are a lot of factors like team defense, health and a lot of luck that goes into choosing the winner. I wanted to have some sort of statistical information to back up my statement, so I looked at the standard set by last year’s winner, Cliff Lee. I felt that this would be a good comparison because both pitchers play in the same division. Table 1 shows that Lee and Greinke were very comparable in most statistical categories.

Table 1

2008 Comparison

 

W

E.R.A

IP

K/9

BB

BABIP

GB

FB

RS

Cliff Lee

22

2.54

223.1

6.85

34

0.288

317

365

6.89

 

 

 

Zack Greinke

13

3.47

202.1

8.14

56

0.299

263

345

6.67

Greinke had more strikeouts while both pitchers received about the same amount of run support and their BABIP was with in the league average. The biggest difference was in walks. Lee only walked 34 hitters all year. This is a remarkably low number as Lee had one of the league’s most historic pitching seasons. Based on the stats, it would be safe to assume that if Greinke reduces his walk rate slightly, his win total would rise.

In relation to fantasy baseball, Greinke is a perfect example of why not to take a pitcher in the early rounds of a draft. This year, Greinke was among a group of pitchers (Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, and Matt Cain) that I knew would be available after the tenth round. Getting a pitcher like Greinke in the eleventh round brings my team more value than drafting someone like CC Sabathia in the fourth round.

What strikes me the most when I watch Greinke pitch is that he knows how to pitch. This may sound like an unusual statement, but unlike other pitchers, Greinke is able to change speeds effectively, move the ball up and down, in and out, all the while maintaining control of all of his pitches. There aren’t a lot of pitchers that can do all those things successfully. In contrast, there are pitchers that are unable to master those skills. Pitchers like Daniel Cabrera that can throw the ball 100 mph, but they don’t know where it is going half of the time which leads to inconsistent outings. These types of pitchers don’t get mentioned in the same sentence as the Cy Young Award.

The 2009 baseball season is still very young and Greinke faces a long road ahead of him. He will have starts where he doesn’t have his best stuff or maybe the Royals don’t play well behind him. There is always the chance of a balky shoulder or a tender elbow. Nevertheless, based on his statistical progression, I feel that Greinke is on the verge of something big. The Cy Young Award is just around the corner.

Plagiarism-Gate Update

Okay, thank goodness it’s FRIDAY!  Woot!

Let’s get into this.  As some of you know, yesterday I touched on my poor start in my main leagues and that my two more casual free leagues were doing OK.  I also stated that, since a good chunk of the league members condoned an owner who was blatantly plagiarizing several websites and blogs on a daily basis, I would be leaving that Yahoo league.

Well, here’s a little update.  Turns out one of those owners read my blog yesterday and cut-and-pasted a portion of my post and put it up on the league message board.  He also added his personal opinion on your beloved fantasy writer.  Let’s see, to save time…the best way to describe his comment… is to say …he was… soooo proud of his opinion that he wanted it to be quoted for all to see!  I’m touched and honored.

Mickey Mantle.jpgThis owner is known to a lot of you out there, not by name, but by his fantasy style.  It’s extremely easy to tell who his favorite MLB team is because his fantasy team is loaded with Derek Jeter, Robinson CanoMickey MantleC.C. Sabathia, etc…  Yeah, he’s that guy.  Since he can no longer afford to see the Yankees in person, thanks to the outrageous prices at the new ballpark, he just owns as many as possible on his fantasy team.

I have a tremendous sense of satisfaction after reading Yankee-boy’s post, though.  Remember, my problem with the league was the massive amount of plagiarized stuff on the message board.  You see, Yankee-boy correctly posted a link directly back to this blog giving proper credit to the source. *wipes a tear*  ArchiveMan has accomplished his task here!  Up, up and away!

super hero.jpgOn a serious note, there is a ton of good information out there on fantasy baseball.  If you are going to copy and paste something you find on the web, do the decent thing and at least post the source and add a link.  I know for some people it may not seem like a big deal.  But believe me it isn’t as easy as it looks to write a blog on a consistent basis.

Don’t fall into the trap of saying,”well I just read the posts, I don’t actually copy-and-paste myself”.  If you enjoy the content, then don’t you want to know who the true author is?  Maybe that author has even more stuff that you’d find enjoyment out of reading?  Maybe the guy cut-and-pasting will stop and you won’t know where to find it on your own.  At the very least it’s common courtesy to give credit to the creator of content, but when people take it and then claim as their own then it’s that much worse — and technically it’s illegal if the content is copyrighted.

Again, I understand, nobody wants to be lectured to about rules, laws or how to treat each other.  But I can assure you, if you put the time and effort into writing a good article and then you found out someone was taking credit for it, you wouldn’t be very happy.

Moving on to some meaty fantasy baseball strategy talk.  Yesterday, I spoke about what I was going to do in my NFBC leagues, where you cannot trade.  Today, I want to discuss my other leagues, mainly my J.A.I.L. and FSWA leagues, where trades are allowed.

albert pujols looking up.jpgFirst step was to look at the rosters, not only mine, but the other owners’ as well.  Spotting potential weaknesses with my team is only half of the project.  I have to then find an owner who has a strength on their roster and ideally has depth so they would be willing to perhaps part with a player I covet.

For example, if I need a 1B and I find the team with Albert Pujos, but they have no other 1B eligible players then I know that I will either have to include a 1B in the deal or else there’s no way the owner will be able to accept my offer, regardless how good it is.  So, before you shoot off a bunch of offers make sure they make sense, not just for you, but for the other guy, too.  Not only will it save time, but it will demonstrate that you are serious about these negotiations.

I talked to Ward P. in the J.A.I.L. about the availibility of C.C. Sabathia and got the typical “anyone’s available”.  While that maybe didn’t seem like much, at least he didn’t flat out say “no way” I’m keeping C.C.  You see, Ward, is a fan of the pin-stripers and I was curious if he was angry over their recent homestand where they gave up a bunch of runs.  Sometimes, people will get frustrated with their fav’ MLB team and the players on their fantasy team who happen to also be on their favorite MLB team.  Sometimes they are more willing to move these players out of spite.

The guys in the J.A.I.L. are pretty experienced players, but with the struggles of Sabathia and the Yankees overall, even loyal fans have to be a bit concerned.  With a glimmer of hope about the prospect of obtaining Sabathia, I took another look at my team and realized pitching was not my most pressing issue.

I was actually stunned that I had forgotten that my hitting in the J.A.I.L. is not good right now, wait that is not accurate, my hitting is atrocious.  I’m last in HR/AVG/RBI.  So, I decided to put the C.C. quest on hold.  Let me add this though, sometimes when I go shopping and start opening up dialogues with owners I stumble onto a situation where a player I like is tossed my way.  I will do a deal even if I don’t technically need that player right now.

ryan howard swinging.jpgSo, don’t be absolutely averse about any aspect of your team when talking trade with a league mate.  Just like in the draft, you always want to have your eyes open for value.  Getting a solid 2nd or 3rd component in a trade who is undervalued is sometimes the key part of a trade.

Another issue I have is when you are in last place, guess what?  Yep, you have players who aren’t playing particularly good and thus don’t have the highest amount of interest.  I have to decide is it worth it to offer up one of my elite guys like Ryan Howard — who not exactly on fire right now — or Curtis Granderson — who is on fire — in hopes of being able to get maybe a couple of players who could help me?

That question takes me back to my team.

Do I have a team I like that is filled with players who are simply struggling now, but I still feel will be fine once they get going or was my original valuation flawed when I drafted these players?  I’m going to take a little break, then I’ll be back and we’ll run down some players on my teams and review their current values and how far off that is from what I orginially thought of them prior to the draft.

Be back soon…

-Johnny Archive    

Careful What You Wish For

It’s definitely a new baseball season.  Last year, for most of the second half of the season, I was leading my two most important leagues.  I was in first place for so long that I actually started to worry that I was unable to provide good advice since I couldn’t relate to the common folk.  I remember thinking that in some ways it would be easier to write and do my podcast if I were battling to improve my position in the standings.

Well, guess what?  I don’t have to worry about being bored cruising to the 2009 championships.  No, that’s not going to be a problem.  As of today, I am currently in last place.

boywithcow.jpg“Oh, but Johnny, aren’t you in 7 leagues this year?  Which of the leagues are you stumbling out of the gate in,” asked the innocent little farm boy.

I look down at the golden-haired youngin’ and gently pat his head.  “Thank you for your warm kindness and gentle question, my boy,” I replied.  “Actually, it is not a single league, you see, but instead 5 teams currently dwell in the cellar.”

YEP, 5 FRICKIN’ TEAMS ARE IN LAST PLACE!  The other 2?  Well, first off, they are the teams I care the least about, my open CBS and Yahoo league — and I’m probably dropping out of this league because the owners think it’s really “cool” to plagerize various fantasy sites around the ‘Net.

So, while it kinda stinks to be in last place, it allows me plenty of room for improvement –  I’d like to introduce the 2009 understatement of the year!!  But I vow here and now, as opposed to “there and yesterday,” that I will not remain buried in the dungeons of fantasy heck for the entire season.  No, sir!  Not only will I make a substantial move over the course of the next few weeks/months, but you my friend will be witness to this triumphet march to greatness and beyond!

john belushi.jpgSo, who’s with me!?!  **I run out of the room, hands in the air, like John Belushi in Animal House.**

Not totally drinking the Kool-Aid, aye?  No problem, I understand your concerns.  After all, for mortal fantasiers (remember, I invented that word) it would be impossible to turn around a team off to such a horrible start and transform it into a juggernaut in the same season.

But, hey, this is Johnny Archive here!  Remember, 6th grade checker and chess champion!  I am not limited to the normal restrictions of average fantasy sports particpants.  Hardly.  Plus, if I lose my main NFBC league I have to get my jewels snipped!  I’m not just going to lay down for that!  Well, actually, I probably will lie down if I have to undergo the procedure, but don’t try and sidetrack me here.

Let’s begin our voyage, shall we?

Strategy for NFBC Leagues

nbcLogo2.pngOkay, there’s definitely some hurdles with these two leagues since I can’t work my trade magic — these leagues don’t allow trading.  Soooo, you guessed it, I’ll have to utilize my secret weapon as part of a mulit-pronged attack.

Prong #1 – Sending subliminal messages to my players mentally kicking their booties into performing at the desired level.  Scoff, if you will, but mock the Archive Telepathic Abilities, or ATA, at your own peril.  Ever heard the expression, “ata, boy!” as a compliment for an outstanding perfromance?  Yep, now you know the rest of the story.

Prong #2 – Working the waiver wire like a chili dog at a weinerdog show.  *shrugs* No idea what that means, either.  I will scoop up some good players in the next few weeks.  Scot Shields has been particularly annoying and his nice little 0IP/4ER outing on Wednesday Night has punched his ticket out of Archiveville.  One obstacle has been the waiver deadline, which is an hour after my new podcast time ends.  I have felt a bit distracted as I’ve been trying to wind down from the show while trying to sort through the FAAB screen — which I am not 100% comfotable with yet — at the NFBC site.  Starting this week, I will do my main bidding on free agents before my show and then tweak post-show, if need be.

Prong #3 – You always have to have at least three prongs when you use a prong attack, it’s just how it is.  If not, you have to call it just a regular plan.  Anyway,  I’m going to try and pick up a few 2-start pitchers and see if I can make a move in Ks and Wins.  Yeah, I’ll need to have a smidge of luck for this to work, but don’t we all?

There you have it, I’ve stated it, recited it and written it in blood on my wall.  Seriously.  It simply can not fail.

As not to pass on too much information at one time and possibly causing my readers heads to explode, I’ll hold off on unveiling my plans for my other leagues (J.A.I.L., FSWA and ALONL), perhaps as soon as tomorrow.

-Johnny Archive 

 

‘Hack’ Attack!

It’s time for another entry from my friend Matt “Hack’ Hackenmiller.  By the way, he was on the podcast this past Sunday and did a great job!  Hopefully, we can get him to find time for the show on a regular basis.

 

What’s Up With the Snakes’ Feeble Line Up?

We all know that it is still early in the baseball season and that statistics don’t really mean much at this point but as dedicated fans, we can definitely spot developing trends. Case in point, the Arizona Diamondbacks. They have struggled to begin the year due mainly to a paltry offense. Again, it is early, but should fans of the D-Backs be worried about the lack of punch in their line-up?

Chris B Young.jpgThrough out the first two weeks of the season, Arizona is hitting at a clip of .227/.292/.388. As a team, they rank near the bottom of the National League in runs scored, hits, and walks. They have been shutout four times and have had five games of scoring two runs or less. All this was accomplished while playing in a ballpark that favors hitters. These results are puzzling because the team’s line-up features young hitters like Stephen Drew, Chris B. Young, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson and Mark Reynolds, all of who were highly touted prospects.

So why aren’t the D-Backs scoring? For one, outside of Drew, none of the previously mentioned hitters have developed into the would-be stars everyone had hoped. To compound matters, the front office employed veterans like Chad Tracy, Tony Clark and Eric Byrnes, none of who will ever be mistaken for Lou Gehrig or Ty Cobb. This is a problem that occurs when teams choose the “youth movement” and the young players don’t deliver. Basically, they have no Plan B.

So, the question remains, should fans be worried or is this just a case of a few players starting off slow? In both 2007 and 2008, Arizona ranked low in the National League in runs scored and OPS. This was associated with ranking towards the top in strikeouts. The inability to get on base and make contact with the ball is a lethal combination for a team struggling to score runs consistently. This has been a continual problem for Arizona because their line-up features numerous hitters that have many of the same attributes. In contrast, the Oakland A’s have free swingers in Orlando Cabrera and Mark Ellis, but surrounded them in a line-up with Jack Cust and Jason Giambi, who tend to work the count. This brings balance to the A’s line-up and prevents long droughts of not having runners on base. It could be that many of the D-Back’s hitters are so young that they are still learning. But learning at the major league level is a daunting task.

When I have watched the Diamondbacks play it seems like they don’t have an offensive identity. They aren’t a power team, they aren’t a speed team, and they don’t really work the count. Teams like Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, and Los Angeles Angels all have a process and plan of attack when trying to score runs. Arizona doesn’t appear to have a plan or if they do, I have yet to figure it out.

The baseball season is only a few weeks old and Arizona does have plenty of time to turn things around. As I mentioned before, their line-up features players that are reputable prospects. In the world of fantasy baseball, the D-Backs are a good team to target if you are looking for a team to pitch and ditch against. Only time will tell if the 2007 division winning team was more of an aberration than a springboard to bigger and better things for the young Diamondbacks.

The Value of a Walk – Matt Hackenmiller

Hey there,

We have a special installment today, as my good friend Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller has put together an article for us.  By the way, Hack — as well as another good fantasy writer/friend Ward Pettenger – will be contributing to the Johnny Archive podcast so stay tuned for more details, coming soon.  Don’t forget the show airs every Sunday 5pm-7pm ET at BlogTalkRadio and is a proud member of The Fantasy Sports Channel.

 

The Value of a Walk

As baseball begins to place more of an emphasis on statistics like on-base percentage, players who work the count and take walks litter major league rosters. What does that mean for those of us who play fantasy baseball because in the standard scoring for fantasy baseball, walks do not play a prominent role for hitters. Does this mean that the skill of drawing a base on balls has no place in fantasy baseball?

Getting on base and avoiding an out is the main objective each time a hitter steps into the batters box. The ability to draw a walk is an essential component to that skill. Although getting on base does not directly translate to fantasy baseball, the more times a player can reach base, the more opportunity there is for a positive outcome. There in lies that link to fantasy baseball. Once on base, a player can steal a base and score a run, both of which are scoring categories in fantasy baseball. This might seem like a very simple concept, but yet many fantasy baseball managers devalue this skill.

Also, the capability for a hitter to decipher between a ball and a strike is an extremely important gift. The batter that doesn’t swing at pitches outside of the strike zone and can pick out a pitch he can drive only adds to their value. These players are more immune to prolonged slumps because they can still get on base via a walk and contribute to the team. Players like Corey Hart and Hunter Pence may put up decent numbers at the end of the year, but because both of them are free swingers, they are susceptible to long periods time when they are not productive, that not only hurts their major league teams, but your fantasy team as well.

Keeping track of the number of times a hitter draws a walk can also aid in player assessment. We all know that Spring Training stats don’t mean much because most players are just trying to get into shape. But every preseason, when I start to evaluate players, I always check to see how many walks a particular player is generating during Spring Training. This gives me an idea of how well a player is defines the strike zone and can pick out a quality pitch to hit. I have found this technique especially useful when assessing a younger, less established hitter.

The one instance when drawing a walk is a deterrent is when the player bats in the eighth slot of a National League line up. In this spot, the opposing pitcher rarely gives the hitter any quality pitches to hit and would rather face the next person in the order, which is the pitcher. Even though the eighth place hitter reaches, his possibility for advancement is slim because the next person up is usually the worst hitter in the line up. Also, most baseball managers will not even attempt a stolen base once the eighth place hitter reaches out of fear that if he thrown out, the pitcher will lead off the next inning, virtually ensuring an easy out. So under these circumstances a walk can lead to an almost certain negative outcome for the hitter.

In real and fantasy baseball, we are looking for players that can consistently produce positive outcomes for our teams. A hitter who knows that strike zone and can work the count will, more times than not, create those outcomes. The ability of a hitter to draw a walk may not directly affect fantasy baseball statistical categories; however, they are a major part of the make up of an effective hitter that you will want on your roster.

Zach Steinhorn Talks Fantasy With JA

I hope everyone had a nice Easter!  Mine?  Well, thank you for asking.  It started good, with the little Archivers running amok franticly searching for the candy-filled eggs, which were left by the Easter Bunny, as Mrs. Archive and I looked on fondly.

Then it came time to get ready for the podcast, which was debuting it’s new extended format of 2 hours.  I decided to record a few segments in advance to help me keep the show running smoothly and on time, but when I went to upload them I was face-to-face with the Easter Gremlin…and he won!  I wasted like 3 hours, so I was concerned I wasn’t going to be as prepared as I wanted to be.

As it turned out, the show went well, I think.  My special guest was Zach Steinhorn who does a great job at MLB.com assisting in the production of the Fantasy 411 and essentially makes the blog flow smoothly — which is a huge aspect of the show these days.

The show is an ever-evolving project, but I am focusing on making it a consistent product which provides good and useful content.  I brought back the 2-Start Pitchers segment which will be a regular feature to help head-to-head league owners, mainly, prepare for the upcoming week.

I also introduced a new segment, the Johnny Archive Strategy Session or J.*****., which will focus on one particular strategy that is relevant to the current point of the season.  For example, yesterday I discussed how I feel this is time of the year typically pitchers are ahead of hitters and the weather is more of a factor to hitting.  Therefor, I think being aggressive in picking up low-end or unproven starting pitchers can increase the likelihood that you will get a good start and stumble onto this year’s Cliff Lee or Edinson Volquez.

Overall, I am excited about doing 2 hours every week, definitely gives me a chance to be more relaxed and not be rushed or run out of time.  If you haven’t heard the show, you can check it out live at BlogTalkRadio every Sunday at 5pm-7pm ET or catch a replay at iTunes.

Good News from the Fantasy Hoops Department, I won the only basketball league I participated in this year.  It was a tough battle with my friend and fellow J.A.I.L. owner, Firewyrm, who is real good at fantasy basketball.

I had suffered injuries to two of my top 5 picks, Amare Stoudamire and Michael Redd.  Normally that means death to a fantasy season, but I did well with a few free agent pickups (Russell Westbrook, Nene and Eric Gordon) and was able to win the championship!

No, I don’t claim to be a fantasy hoops expert, but since I have played fantasy sports for 25 years now, I’m at a point where I can usually field a competitive team in just about any sport.

I play fantasy hoops mainly to help fill the void between football and baseball season, but it’s always nice to win!  Ben Gordon saved me this week!  Congrats to Firewyrm on having another great season.

Now, how about some baseball talk?  Sounds good to me, too.  I am currently in 2nd place in the J.A.I.L. league.  Even with Ryan Howard and Geovany Soto not producing my hitters are putting up decent numbers, so that’s encouraging and I feel my pitching staff is going to be very solid all year, barring injuries.

In the NFBC leagues, I’m currently mid-pack 6th and 7th, which is fine.  Even if I was in last I wouldn’t be too concerned, unless I had massive injuries to key players.  I picked up David Aardsma, the relief pitcher who has picked up 2 Saves for the Mariners and appears to be the #2 guy if Brandon Morrow fails or needs rest, via the FAAB draft for $31.  We start with $1000 and this is my first pickup.  I was surprised nobody else bid on him, though.

I could have went with heavier on a 2-start pitcher, but I felt taking a flier on Aardsma was the smart play even though he may not have long term value.  I’ll say it again, this is the time to take fliers on guys.  Go for it!

 I think I’ll take myself out to my first Round Rock Express game tonight.  Have a great day everyone!

-Johnny Archive

Sometimes Numbers Suck

Good Friday to everyone.

I have taken a few days off from the world of fantasy and numbers.  As you can probably imagine, for fantasy folk like myself, the weeks/months leading up to the start of the MLB season are very busy.  And once the season gets underway, there is a bit of a lull.

You’ve made the suggestions, hyped the sleepers and warned against the overly trendy, sexy picks.  So, now it’s simply a matter of time.  Time to allow some of the stats to pile up.

Nick Adenhart.jpgTransitioning from forecasting to analyzing the players is not something that should take too long, but there is short opportunity right after the first pitches take place around the country.

Just as I was about to jump back into the world of stats and trends I was blind-sided by the tragic death Nick Adenhart, who at 22, was killed in a hit-and-run accident late Wednesday Night in Fullerton, California.

As some of you may know, April is a tough month for me personally.  Sure, it’s the first month of the baseball season which is cool, but it’s also the month that the most traumatic incident of my life took place.  I was downtown Oklahoma City on a beautiful Spring morning some years ago when at approximately 9:02am CT a bomb went off.

So, maybe that’s why the Adenhart story hit me a little harder than I’d expect.  Afterall, it’s not like I knew Nick or he was favorite player or anything like that.  Matter of fact, I remember last year when Adenhart was first called up, he didn’t perform particularly well.  The injuries to frontline starters in LA this year meant that Adenhart would probably make the rotation.  So, he was just one of many young hurlers who I would be keeping an eye on.

I casually watched some of his start Wednesday Night, honestly more concerned with how the A’s hitters were doing, before calling it a night.  When I woke up and heard about the tragedy, I was sick.  I had absolutely no energy to dig into numbers or write a fantasy baseball blog.  Actually, I’m still not much into fantasy now, two days later.  But I did want to share some of my thoughts and help work my way through the reality of how precious life is.

As a parent of 2 small boys, I just can’t imagine what it must be like to see your child go through all the struggles of youth baseball and to finally make it to the majors only to then suddenly lose it all — and of course I’m talking about his baseball career.  It’s even more sad to learn Nick was an only-kid and his family tree will end with him.

I understand, I have to move on.  We all do when tragedies take place.  But for now, I want this blog to be about Nick Adenhart and nothing to do with fantasy or numbers.  That’s one thing us fantasiers have to admit, we’re interested in players for selfish reasons.  After all, how in the world could a Dodgers fan possibly have Matt Cain on his roster or a Red Sox fan draft Mark Teixeira?  The only answer, of course, is we think those players can benefit our teams.

There’s no way numbers can tell the story of Nick Adenhart.  So, as the title says, sometimes numbers suck.

I would like to offer up something positive.  Perhaps the Angels’ organization could create an “Adenhart Award” for a pitcher in their system who best demenstrates an ability to battle back from early setbacks, whether it be physical or performance?  That way this young man’s life and spirit can be remembered long after this horrible accident is forgotten.

My warmest thoughts go out to the Adenhart Family and friends, as well as to the rest of the families dealing with the loss of their loved ones who were involved and were lost.

-Johnny Archive

OPENING DAY 2009!

We’ve made it!  Sure, last night’s game in Phily was cool, but today is the real Opening Day!  I’m going to just ramble a bit today.  I’m excited, thrilled, drained, nervous and relieved all at the same time.

  • Yesterday’s podcast was excellent!  It was my highest rated show ever and also set a record for live listeners for me.  Sure, it was a bummer that Geoff Stein couldn’t make it, but he apologized big-time and explained that he was exhausted and we’ll reschedule him.
  • I’m a little concerned about doing 7 fantasy leagues, but I’ll just have to work hard on staying organized — which will indeed be a chore for me.
  • jeff francoeur swinging.jpgAs I stated in my post the other day, I prefer the new Mets stadium over the Yankees new home.  Both places are nice and both teams should contend in ’09.
  • Derek Lowe pitched great as the Bravos beat the Phils Sunday Night.  Brett Myers was a bit shaky early, but his breaking stuff improved as the game went on.
  • Jeff Francoeur went deep utilizing a new batting stance.  I’m a bit worried that launching that HR might actually hurt him, as he might try to hit homers in his next 20-30 ABs and pull everything.
  • Rookie Jordan Shafer also went deep — in his first big league AB, no less — which is not something you should expect to continue to happen.  The main part of this dude’s game is speed.  Simply aiming for the fences will probably cost him his starting job.
  • I kinda wish the NCAA would move the hoops finals to another day so MLB could bask in the limelight by itself on Opening Day.  By the way, I will go with the Elephants to win it all.
  • I’m in the finals of my fantasy basketball league.  My opponent is my good friend Firewyrm, who has a loaded team.  Had I not lost 2 of my top picks, Michael Redd and Amare Stoudamire to injuries, I think I would’ve won, but now I need alot to go right to take the title.
  •  We’ve already had one game snowed out today, grrrr, I can’t wait until we get to the age where every team north of Mexico has a retractable roof stadium.  It just makes sense, c’mon.
  • Albert Pujols gloves.jpgAfter doing my first show on The Fantasy Sports Channel at BlogTalkRadio I’ve been encouraged to entertain the idea of extending the show to 120 minutes.  Whoa, cool, I’ll take that as a compliment from the new network.
  • Ryan Howard struck out in a crucial AB last night in the 9th inning.  Howard owners should remember he has been known as a bit of a slow starter, so don’t panic if it takes a few weeks to get it going — yes, I know he had a great spring.
  • Keep an eye on the Rangers and Nationals pitching staffs, I just have a feeling there is going to be a few surprises emerge.
  • I’m starting to jump on the A’s bandwagon, though the young pitching staff worries me.  I wonder if Pedro Martinez lowered his price tag, how’d he look in green and white?  Talk about a good mentor for young guys.
  • Now that the season has started, fantasy owners need to switch gears and start preparing for free agent signings.  This is the part of the game so many owners fail at because, yes, it does require a little effort.  Last year guys like Cliff Lee, Carlos Quentin and Ryan Ludwick were all undrafted players who went on to have major impacts on fantasy leagues.
  • If you are in a league that has free transactions, and most do, then don’t be tentative when it comes to snatching up a hot player, you can always release him later if he doesn’t pan out.
  • Don’t be rude when you get what you consider an insulting trade offer.  The other owner may not know just how much better Carl Crawford is compared to Luke Scott and Kevin Millwood.  Plus, if you burn that bridge early you may miss out on a future trading partner.  Yes, I know, it is frustrating to repeatedly get useless offers, but simply hit the “reject” button and move on.
  • For those owners coming over to fantasy baseball from football be prepared.  The season is much, much longer and you really need to pace yourself.  Don’t get too happy if your team gets off to a good start or too down if your gang struggles out of the gate.
  • Now that I think about it, you’ll hear alot of people encourage team owners who’s team gets off to a bad start.  You don’t hear people reminding owners who’s team rockets out to a comfortable lead that they need to keep working.  I had a double-digit lead with a week to go last year in the 2 leagues I won and I was still sweating it out.
  • Okay, I don’t want to get too aggressive with advice today, after all it is Opening Day!  It’s a day for us fantasiers to share our sport with the masses.  Go out, or stay in, and enjoy it all!

-Johnny Archive

Big Weekend: New Digs & Putting My ‘Boys’ Up

It’s Christmas Eve for baseball fans! Tomorrow is the first official game of the season.  Lots of excitement to be sure.  Of course fantasy fanatics are jazzed, but Opening Day is all about real baseball as fans from all over the world get to celebrate the start of MLB baseball.

This year, we’ve got a few other big stories adding to the hoopla.  Sure, most people are probably nervous about me doing my NFBC draft Saturday April 4th at 5pm ET knowing that if I don’t win this league I will undergo an intense surgical procedure, the VASECTOMY!  I have big plans for the Johnny Archive Snip-Snips as this team is affectionately known.

On top of that high drama situation, New York is debuting two new stadiums!  We all got a peek at them as they played exibition games Friday Night.  Here’s my take on them based on my limited exposure.

New Yankee Stadium – I am quite underwhelmed.  Sorry, but they basically made the same stadium next to the old one.  On T.V. it is almost impossible to tell a difference.  I’m not sure what is supposed to be exciting about that?  I’m sure it’s better for the fans that are actually in the ballpark, but since they jacked-up the ticket prices to help pay for the place, not as many “average” fans will be able to experience it.  Plus, if you’re going to make a new stadium in this century, put a lid on it!  Rain-outs are a bummer and since we have the advancements to put on a retractable roof and still keep the building look good, it should be a requirement for all new stadiums.

New Mets Stadium – Now this is a cool looking place!  It’s crisp, clean and even through the T.V. it feels new.  Maybe it’s because the old Shea Stadium was so ugly, but this place really jumps out at you.  Mets fans deserve a true home field that makes baseball an enjoyable experience and not a quest to see if you can make it through alive.  It’s still hard to tell if it will benefit hitters or pitchers more, but the reduced foul territory should help get the batters another whack or two.  If I had to choose which of the new stadiums I like better, I bet you can guess already, but yeah, I think the new Mets home park is by far the better looking place.

Grand_Slam_277x180-1.gifOkay, with that, I’m back to doing some last minute evaluating of my potential draft picks for the NFBC draft.  The draft will be held at MockDraftCentral.com at 4pm ET.  Speaking of MockDraftCentral.com, Geoff Stein, will be my special guest on tomorrow’s edition of The Johnny Archive Fantasy Baseball Show — my first live show as a member of the Fantasy Baseball Channel at BlogTalkRadio.com.

Remember, tomorrow my show moves to its new time, 5pm ET on Sundays.  If you get a chance, please swing by and check out the show live or catch the archive version at iTunes.com.

Take care and enjoy the start of the season!

-Johnny Archive 

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