June 2009
Buy & Sell – Puma Hunting
Buy & Sell
Note: Ownership is based in Yahoo! Leagues.
Three to Buy
Lance Berkman (.239/.372/.479, 97% Ownership)
Although Lance Berkman’s batting average has been a disappointment this season, his BB/K rate is excellent and the power is still there. There are a couple of signs that Berkman could be headed for a big second half of the season. Even though his BABIP stands at .247, Berkman has never had a BABIP below .300 in a season. This means that he has been hitting in a lot of bad luck so far in 2009 despite having virtually the same LD% as 2008. This could be a complete opposite from last season where Berkman raked during the first half and leveled off over the summer.
Adam LaRoche (.267/.363/.498, 31% Ownership)
A classic slow starter, LaRoche got off to better start this season only to tail off during April and May. A potential free agent next year, LaRoche has been rumored as the next Pittsburgh Pirate to be shipped out of town. That leaves a question about what hitting environment he will be in after the All-Star break. But for his career, LaRoche has a second half line of .297/.360/.548 so if he is available on the waiver wire, now might be the time to stash him on your bench.
Aaron Harang (5-7, 3.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 93.1 IP, 77 K, 82% Ownership)
From 2005-2007, Harang went from an under the radar to dominant fantasy pitcher. He suffered through a painful 2008, which scared off a lot of owners. It now appears that Harang is back to those previous levels. His K/9 and BB/9 rates are right in line with what he was doing in his past outstanding seasons. Going forward it looks like he can maintain this level of success because his FIP is almost exactly the same as his current ERA and his BABIP is right around league average. Acquiring Harang now will give your pitching staff a boost for the second half of the season.
Three to Sell
Michael Bourn (.294/.369/.412, 62% Ownership)
The Bourn Ultimatum has been pretty impressive so far this season considering how awful he was last year. The reason you have Bourn on your roster is for stolen bases, but if Bourn can’t get on base, it makes that skill null and void. With that said, Bourn is still striking out quite a bit. His BABIP of .369 is well above the league average, which means he has hit in a lot of luck so far this season. Another concern is that Bourn is hitting fewer ground balls this season and not trying to leg out base hits. I know some players can make dramatic improvements from year to year, but right now it appears that Bourn is playing way above his head.
Mark Reynolds (.263/.350/.546, 86% Ownership)
This slugging Diamondback has shown some improved skills so far in 2009. Despite his development, there are still some questions about his continued production. Obviously, his strikeouts are the most glaring worry as he is striking out 37.4% of the time. That tells us that his batting average will most likely continue to come down quite a bit. If that is the case, no matter how many home runs he hits, that low batting average will be a hindrance to your roster. One other point, Reynolds is also hitting fewer fly balls this season, which could lead to fewer home runs during the summer months.
Rick Porcello (8-4, 3.55 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 78.2 IP, 44 K, 56% Ownership)
Porcello has produced 8 wins through June 2009 despite being in only his second professional season. Not known as a strikeout pitcher, he uses a heavy sinker to get outs. Although Porcello has done well so far, there are many glaring question marks about him going forward. His BABIP is well below the league average and there is a huge discrepancy between his ERA and his 4.82 FIP. But the main thing to remember is that he is a very young pitcher and the Tigers are going to have to monitor his innings during the second half of the season. If this is a case, he will have fewer starts to make an impact on your roster.
Name to remember…Rajai Davis, Oak.-OF. For the time being, Davis has won the centerfield job in Oakland. With Rajai on your roster, he brings the threat of stolen bases as he stole 29 while playing for San Francisco and Oakland last year. Normally the Athletics have shown a distain for the stealing bases, but they must feel safe in letting Davis run as he has 9 SB in thirteen attempts so far this season. If he can start to get on base a little more, the more of an opportunity he will have to use his speed to aid in the stolen base category.
by Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
Good News, Bad News 06/24/09
Good News, Bad News 6/24/09
So, let me get this straight, some of these weight-loss companies sell food to people who eat too much to help them not eat so much? Sheesh. What’s next, Budweiser “beverages” for alcoholics?!
Anyway, on to the show…
Good News – Manny Ramirez is back playing pro baseball for the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes!
Bad News – His 50-game suspension doesn’t prevent him from playing Minor League Baseball?! What the …!
Good News – The MLB policy on banned substances is supposedly one of the toughest in pro sports.
Bad News – By allowing pro baseball players to play pro baseball while suspended from pro baseball kinda undermines your “hard line” position on the policy of steroids.
Good News – Finally, Summer has officially arrived and baseball is the only major pro sport going!
Bad News – I must be getting old, because I seem to get surprised every year by just how frickin’ hot it is during Summertime!
Good News – The new Transformers movie opens today all across the country.
Bad News – Oh yippee, a new line of toys that the Li’l Archivers will simply “have” to have.
Good News – Speaking of movies, I still haven’t seen The Hangover, which I really want to see.
Bad News – Sometimes I hate this internal mechanism of mine that prevents me from doing things that appear to be overly trendy.
Good News – Hack will be back for today’s podcast after his trip to northern California to celebrate year one of his wedding vows.
Bad News – Nice of Hack to text me during the trip after each and every strikeout by Tex 3B Chris Davis, who I drafted last week in the H.A.L.L. and may never live down!
Good News – The Texas Longhorns go for the NCAA championship tonight in baseball when they take on the LSU Tigers.
Bad News – Collegiate baseball doesn’t get near the recognition it deserves.
Good News – The US Soccer Team takes on the world’s number #1 ranked team, Spain, today.
Bad News – Why do so many soccer players turn into drama-queens while trying to get fouls called against their opponents?
Good News – The NBA Draft is fast approaching and we’re seeing some early deals being made.
Bad News – After all we heard in the media for the past few years about what a superstar Tyler Hansbrough was, he’s not even expected to be drafted in the top 25!?
Good News – It looks like I may end up being right about my prediction about A-Rod when I said I thought he was making a mistake by trying to come back too soon.
Bad News – If indeed, he ends up not being able to perform at his typical all-star caliber it could be a major blow to the Yankees lineup, including my NFBC #1 pick Mark Teixeira. Grrrr.
Well, that’s about for now. Make sure you join Hack and Me on the Johnny Archive podcast tonight at 7pm ET on The Fantasy Sports Channel as BlogTalkRadio.
By the way, as a tease, we have some great guests lined up for the month of July! We’ll even have some goodies for YOU, the listener, so remember the show is live every Wednesday at 7pm ET and Sunday’s 5-7pm ET for the 2-hour extravaganza or download it at iTunes!
Jack Coen: Louder and Cleaner
I had some audio problems this past Sunday with the Jack Coen clip that I played during the show. So, I thought I’d put the clip up here so you can enjoy it. I saw Jack several years ago in Irvine, CA. Enjoy!
| Jokes.com | ||||
| Jack Coen – Raising Kids | ||||
| http://media.mtvnservices.com/mgid:cms:item:comedycentral.com:190950 | ||||
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Buy & Sell – Stewy Time
Buy & Sell
By Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
Note: Ownership is based in Yahoo! Leagues.
Three to Buy
Adrian Beltre (.261/.293/.383, 57% Ownership)
The Seattle third baseman got off to a slow start the first couple of months of the season. But in the last few weeks, Beltre has begun to get it rolling as he has had fourteen hits in his last ten games and there are some positive signs ahead. For his career, Beltre has a .281/.336/.490 line after the All Star break and he is in a contract year. He won’t reach the status that he reached in the contract year of 2004, but there is still incentive enough for Beltre to keep it going.
Ian Stewart (.222/.308/.488, 43% Ownership)
Stewart has taken over the third base job in Colorado after the benching of Garrett Atkins. It is always a good strategy to have a Rockies position player on your roster, but what makes Stewart the most valuable is that in the Yahoo! format, he is eligible at 2B and 3B. The batting average isn’t all that appealing,, however, the Rockies will be playing more games at home this month, so that stat will be on the rise. To be able to put a player with a slugging percentage close to .500 in your middle infield slot will only make your roster that much better.
Javier Vazquez (4-6, 3.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 92.1 IP, 112 K, 92% Ownership)
The move from Cellular Field to Atlanta has agreed with Vazquez as his WHIP and ERA are considerably down this season. It seems like Vazquez gets lost every season when discussing the best pitchers in baseball, but he has thrown over two hundred innings the last four seasons and has struck out over 190 batters five different times in his career. His BABIP is a bit low, but nothing really that concerning since he has only walked 18 batters all season. His lack of name recognition may allow you to pilfer him from an unsuspecting owner.
Three to Sell
Ben Zobrist (.310/.420/.678, 85% Ownership)
Where did this come from? Zobrist has gone from a utility player to possible All Star for the Tampa Bay Rays. Let’s see, why don’t I believe in this turn around? Here are a couple of reasons: his Isolated Power of .368 is higher than the likes of Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, and Raul Ibanez. Zobrist’s HR/FB rate of 25% is higher than Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun. So we are talking about a fringe major league player producing stats equal to or better than some of the best in the game. Now might be the time to move Zobrist before he turns back into a pumpkin.
Justin Upton (.308/.391/567, 89% Ownership)
Upton has begun to live up to some of the lofty expectations that have been placed upon him the last few years. Although, I think he will still be productive the rest of the season, there are some warning signs that he may experience a drop off. He has an alarming strikeout rate of 27% and his .380 BABIP is way over the league average, so there will be an adjustment period ahead. I can understand why managers wouldn’t want to trade away someone like Upton. He is considered one of the best young players in the game, but his production is bound to fall off at some point this year.
Matt Cain (9-1, 2.39 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 86.1 IP, 68 K, 93% Ownership)
Cain has been able so far this season. He has teamed with Tim Lincecum to form one of the best young pitching duos in baseball. However, there are many concerns as Cain’s strike out rate has dropped from last season while his home run rate has risen. Also, he has a high strand rate meaning that he is allowing runners to get on base, but is getting out of some tough jams. Over the course of the season, more of those runners tend to score which will affect his ERA and possibly how many wins his receives. So far this season, Cain has produced like a number one starter after he was drafted to be a number two or three. Look for him to return to those draft predictions.
Name to remember…Andrew Miller, FLA.-SP. The highly regarded lanky left-hander has had some positive moments this season. The strike out potential is there, but control is still an issue as evidence by his 43/27 K/BB rate. The more that he gets to pitch at the major league level, though, the comfortable he looks as he has turned in three optimistic starts in a row. He is still a match up type pitcher and because of the control problems, those match ups can feel like a roller coaster at times. But he is still someone to target for later in the season and going forward into next year.
You may be wondering why Zobrist is on the “Sell” list so soon after a post the other day that encouraged readers to pick him up. Well, the simple answer is Hack and Johnny Archive don’t always agree, but we are both willing to support our positions.
-Johnny Archive
Zobrist Not Z-Fluke
Okay, it’s almost here, the day we celebrate Dads. As a dad, I can say that I don’t need/want anything major, but a good hug from our kid(s) is always perfect!
The Johnny Archive Fantasy Baseball Show will, of course, be live on the air Sunday starting at 5pm ET. We’d love to have you in the chatroom with us, but if catching an archived version — like at iTunes — is better for you then that is perfectly fine, as well.
I’d like to once again thank each and everyone of you who has listened to the podcast. Hack and I really enjoy putting it together for you each week. Because of you, we continue to grow and we are quickly becoming known throughout the fantasy sports world. We look forward to doing all we can to help prepare you for a successful fantasy experience.
We know you are serious about fantasy sports and we treat our listeners with the respect you deserve. We also know that there are a lot of options out there in the fantasy market, so we’ll continue to provide you with the very latest news and advice, as well as some genuine, unique entertainment.
Most sites charge you for their stats, updates and opinions, but no Johnny Archive listener/reader has ever paid for anything. Your kind words of praise and encouragement are payment enough! Please keep the coming!!
Okay, onward we go…
Carlos Gonzalez OF COL – Hit his first HR as a member of the Rockies on Thursday. This is a very talented player and even though the Rox have some depth at the position, this kid is legit and might emerge as primetime fantasy player before the end of the year.
Clint Barmes SS COL – Hit his 7th bomb of the season on Thursday. This underrated 2B AND SS eligible player is hitting .296 and brings a touch of speed and power to the MI.
Ubaldo Jimenez SP COL - Evened his record at 6-6 on the season with a solid outing on Thursday. The start was at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, but when Ub-Jim is on it doesn’t matter where he’s dealing. The ERA is a very respectable 3.73 and as long as he keeps his Walks down, he’ll provide nice WHIP and SO numbers, currently has 76/38 SO/BB rate in 89.1 IP.
Ben Zobrist 2B/SS/OF TB – This former prospect was hitting 5th Thursday behind Upton, Crawford, Longoria and Pena. If he remains in the thick of the lineup there’s no reason to think he can’t conintue to be productive. He’s only a .245 hitter in the big leagues in 657 ABs, so many will feel a drop is coming. But I say not so fast my friend, B-Z is a career .318 hitter in over 1300 minor league ABs and at 28, this swtich-hitter is not a fluke. Be thrilled if some owner in your league tries to pawn this unknown off on you for something relatively cheap.
Marco Scutaro SS TOR – Made one of the coolest plays of the year on Thursday when he turned a walk into a double by taking advantage of a sleeping Philly defense. Scut’s is hitting .302 with 5 HR and 7 SB so fsr this year. At 33, I’m not convinced this .265 career hitter can continue to be this productive, but he’s a fun guy to watch and root for.
Jimmy Rollins SS PHI – He’s been off to a horrible start thus far in 2009, as his .225 AVG would suggest. Perhaps Thursday was a good omen when he went 3-4 with a HR/2RBI/2R. The entire Phillies team has come back to earth in ’09 as they defend their ’08 title. These guys are vets and have proven track records so they figure to get rolling at some point. For example, Rollins is 50 points below his career average of .275 and once he gets more hits you have to figure on increases in SB and power.
Tommy Hanson SP ATL – This might be the guy that gets called up and has a major impact on fantasy leagues. Coel Hamels was that guy a few years ago and when it comes FAAB bidding these are the type of players that it’s worth to blow a big chunk on. Not only are they impressive players, and should be for many, many years, but by them coming up early in the year can actually help this year. Sure, he’s pitched himself into trouble in each of his starts so far, but he has the stuff to get out of it. I spent nearly 30% of my annual FAAB budget on Hanson and I am so glad I got him.
That’s about it for now. Oh yeah, let me take a moment to wish Hack and Mrs. Hack a happy 1st Anniversary!!! They are celebrating with a nice and well-earned vacation to northern California. Have fun and remember you only have 1 more year of newlywed-ness!
-Johnny Archive
Ichiro Insight
The Decline of Ichiro?
by Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
Ichiro Suzuki is widely considered one of the top outfielders in baseball. Since coming to the United States in 2001, he has displayed many impressive abilities. These talents have made Ichiro a fan favorite all around baseball. In recent years, however, Ichiro’s remarkable skill set has shown a bit of deteriation. Although still productive, we must begin to question if Ichiro has begun the decline phase of his legendary career.
Ichiro exploded onto the 2001 baseball scene as he won both the American League Rookie of the Year and M.V.P. in the same season. As impressive as this is, his rookie status was based on his introduction to American baseball. But it easy to forget that when he came to the majors, he was already a star of the Japanese Leagues and that he was at the magical age of twenty-seven. That is not to say that Ichiro’s initial success was expected. Actually, it was quite the opposite as he was the first position player from over seas to be given a starting job in the majors. I am sure the Mariners are glad that they made that decision.
With each passing season, Ichiro continued to produce amazing stats. In fantasy baseball, he preceded to move up draft boards each season as well. Because of Ichiro’s combination of batting average and stolen bases, he was a player that could help a fantasy team win several of the standard offensive categories. . However, as we begin to examine his stats more closely, (see chart below) Ichiro’s pace in several of those categories has begun to slow down. If he continues along the same course, Ichiro will set career lows in runs scored and stolen bases.
|
YEAR |
AGE |
BA |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
|
2001 |
27 |
0.350 |
127 |
8 |
69 |
56 |
|
2002 |
28 |
0.321 |
111 |
8 |
51 |
31 |
|
2003 |
29 |
0.312 |
111 |
13 |
62 |
34 |
|
2004 |
30 |
0.372 |
101 |
8 |
60 |
36 |
|
2005 |
31 |
0.303 |
111 |
15 |
68 |
33 |
|
2006 |
32 |
0.322 |
110 |
9 |
49 |
45 |
|
2007 |
33 |
0.351 |
111 |
6 |
68 |
37 |
|
2008 |
34 |
0.310 |
103 |
6 |
42 |
43 |
|
2009* |
35 |
0.332 |
82 |
7 |
55 |
30 |
|
* Pace for 2009 season |
This is significant because these are two of the main categories that managers count on Ichiro to help them win.
On the other hand, is this really surprising? Ichiro turns thirty-five this season and no matter how good of shape or athlete he is, age is bound to catch up with him sooner or later. The total ineffectiveness of the Seattle Mariners plays into this as well. The Mariners’ offense has been one of the worst in baseball the past few seasons. This significantly reduces the probability that once Ichiro reaches bases he will be driven in. There is also the theory that with the Mariners being so bad record wise, Ichiro won’t be stealing many bases in an effort to lessen the wear and tear on his body. This may make sense in the “real” baseball world, but this type of theory is a killer for fantasy baseball. These particulars should tell us that Ichiro isn’t having just a bad season or two. Instead, this can be considered a definite downward trend in Ichiro’s career.
There comes a point with veterans players where they are drafted on name recognition alone. This why players like Carlos Zambrano, Vladimir Guerrero, and Magglio Ordonez get drafted as early as they do. Most fantasy managers feel comfortable and are familiar with these players and think that these types of players can return to their past glories.
Ichiro is still more than a serviceable fantasy outfielder. But as the stolen bases dwindle, he is starting to turn into a one-category star. While that batting average is still very nice, most fantasy baseball managers expect more from a player who is draft as high as Ichiro. It is possible that Ichiro could find the fountain of youth and return his number to the 2001 levels, but it is more likely that we are witnessing the decline of the magnificent Ichiro Suzuki.
Hack’s List of Buy & Sell Players
Buy & Sell
by Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
Note: Ownership is based in Yahoo! Leagues.
Three to Buy
Lyle Overbay (.286/.388/.539, 11% Ownership)
Often overlooked because he doesn’t produce the typical power numbers that are usually associated with other first basemen, Overbay is putting up solid numbers once again. He provides reliable statistics in runs, RBI, and batting average. For those that play in daily leagues, Overbay is subject to a platoon against left-handers. But that isn’t necessarily a bad thing as he has a OPS over 1.000 versus right handers this year. Overbay wont single handily win your league for you, but he will provide solid production for your roster throughout the year.
Rick Ankiel (.261/.329/.483, 31% Ownership)
A nasty crash into an outfield wall pretty much derailed the first two months of the season for Ankiel. Now healthy, he is starting to get his timing back. Ankiel has put together a five game hitting streak, with four extra base hits during that span. It may take some time for the batting average to come around, but Ankiel is a good source of power going forward.
Jordan Zimmerman (2-3, 5.71 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 52 IP, 54 K, 12% Ownership)
The hyped preseason rookie has had some struggles so far this year for the Nationals. But, then again, what National pitcher hasn’t struggled this season? Despite the potholes there are actually some positives for Zimmerman. He has a healthy K/9 rate of 9.35 and a solid G/F rate of .85. What is really telling is his .329 BABIP, which shows that he has been pitching in a bit a bad luck so far. This isn’t that surprising as the National outfield defense is one of the worst in baseball, meaning there are a lot of fly balls dropping in for hits when the likes of Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn can’t get to them. Look for Zimmerman to post substantial numbers throughout the season.
Three to Sell
Chris Davis (.207/.266/.434, 75% Ownership)
The preseason hot pick for the hot corner, Davis has struggled mightily to find any consistency this season. Granted, the power has been there, but at what cost as he is on pace to shatter the single season strike out record. But the difference between Davis, and say Jack Cust, is that Cust draws his share of walks to go along with his strikeouts. This leads to Cust helping out in other categories. Davis has walked a ******** twelve times to go along with his 88 strikeouts. Throw in the fact that the Rangers have openly discussed sending Davis back to the minor leagues, its time to sell on Davis before his value is nonexistent.
Trevor Hoffman (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.47 WHIP, 17.0 IP, 15 K, 90% Ownership)
The all time saves leader is having a resurgence in Milwaukee. This is very surprising because most pitchers don’t go from struggling at spacious PETCO Park to dominating at a very hitter friendly Miller Park. But certainly, Hoffman has found the fountain of youth so far. The question is, will he continue at this pace? I tend to think that he can’t. His BABIP is extremely low at this point and I doubt that he will end the season with an ERA of 0.00. Hoffman may still rack up some saves due to the Brewers not having any other relief pitchers that can do the job. But those saves may come at a cost to your ERA and WHIP.
Russell Branyan (.319/.419/.628, 72% Ownership)
So far this season, Branyan has hit more like Lou Gehrig than the fringe major leaguer that Branyan has been for most of his career. What looks most suspect is that he is hitting over .300 against left handers this season after accumulating a .219/.303/.462 line for his career. This tells me that there is a steep drop off coming. Branyan will still get at bats because the Mariners don’t have anyone else to play first base and he might still pop a few home runs, but look for the batting average to fall significantly.
Name to remember…Scott Podsednik, CHIW.-OF. Scotty Pods has returned to the South Side and has began to contribute like it was 2005 again. He may not steal fifty bases like in the past, but he could still produce 20-25 stolen bases, which is very helpful to a fantasy roster. Look for White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen to continue to give Podsednik the green light on the base paths as the summer rolls on.
Craigslist – List of Scammers?
As I talked about with Hack on yesterday’s podcast, we got some good news from BlogTalkRadio earlier in the week. The management at BlogTalkRadio have made Johnny Archive a Featured Host! Woot! What that means is every Johnny Archive Fantasy Baseball Show will now be a featured event and BTR will help promote the show.
Pretty cool!
Basically, it’s another reminder that, because of the listeners out there, the show is getting some attention from people who are in the business of spotting up and coming shows. Hack and I really enjoy doing the show — and we are still in the process of making the show better every day — and it feels good to be recognized for the time and effort we put forth.
On tap for this weekend’s podcast is our first FSWA Roundtable Show featuring FSWA writers Chris Morgan, Perry Missner, Robert Burghardt and Jonathan Gangi. It should be some interesting dialogue between these serious baseball personalities. Join us live 5-7pm ET at BlogTalkRadio.com or catch the archived edition or download the show at iTunes.
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So, I’m selling my Dodge Ram truck and I think, hey I’ll toss it up on Craigslist. I mean, what could go wrong? Well, it’s been a awhile since I used CL for anything, and apparently the scammers have claimed CL as their “turf”. I must have missed that google alert. Anyway, to save you the boredom of listening to another “I almost got scammed” story, I’ll just say that anyone contacting you with very bad use of sentence structure and does not name your item specifically is probably not on the level.
Acutally, I changed my mind. After sifting through a few sites that are aimed at detouring these scammers and reading a lot of posts that don’t seem to understand how this scam works, let me explain it as I understand it.
- You list something for sale on CL, probably using the feature to keep your identity hidden, because after all, you’re not an idiot.
- You get a short email asking if item is still for sale - something like “hello i will like to know if this posted ad is still available, and in good condition?????????” Any email that does NOT mention your item specifically and has 9 straight question marks should be a red flag.
- You respond, usually with your normal email account with your real name and info (and some of you out there give way too much info in your signatures), which throws out the efforts of CL to keep your information private.
- The scammer returns your email and say he wants the item saying something like,”
Thank for the prompt response my secretary will process and mail a
certified draft to cover the cost as am completely satisfied with
it.I will need the details of whom & where to mail the payment
1.Name to be on the check
2.Home address
3.Mobile #
Please note ‘United Parcel Service’ do not deliver to P.O.Box
addresses and i will not be mailing a draft to one.My mover will be
coming over for the pick up right only after the payment as been
delivered.Kindly delete the posting as am totally committed to buying
from you to save cost,..Here is my relay phone # is (210) 209-8524 am
deaf and will receive your phone messages via email ,regards” -
So, you send your info because you still feel safe, afterall you are not going to send this yahoo anything until you have payment in hand.
-
The scammer sends you a cashiers check from some bogus company or a stolen company check.
-
But there’s been a mistake, he actually sent you too much. Instead of sending you a check for $2000, the check is made for $3700.
-
The scammer assures you it is his assistant’s fault and he apologizes…and suggests the easiest way to take care of this is for you to simply cash that $3700 check and keep the $2000 he meant to send you plus $50-$100 for your trouble and send him the difference — usually Western Union or Money Gram.
-
Of course, he’ll say that he is trusting YOU to do the right thing and not keep the extra money. By turning the tables he’s counting on you, as a honorable person, to make sure you do everything you’re supposed to do so you don’t appear as a bad person.
-
You cash the check at your bank — and if you have a good relationship with your bank they’ll want to take care of you, their customer, by not putting a hold on the check.
-
All is good, right? You got your $2000, plus a little extra for the hassle, the other person got the item you were selling, plus $1500 or so.
-
Then a week or so later, sometimes longer, sometimes shorter, you get a message from the bank that your account is overdrawn. The bank has discovered that the original check was either bogus or stolen.
-
The bank reminds you that it is not their fault and you must get your account in good standing or face additional fees and negative hits to your credit report.
-
There’s no replies from scammer’s email account, of course.
-
And it hits you, there’s no doubt, you have officially been scammed.
-
What’s sad is that most people are so embarrassed that they don’t tell anyone. I mean, who wants to be known as that idiot who fell for that Internet scam.
So, there you go. That’s a basic outline of how it works. Some people think they are being smarter than the scammer and will play along just to mess with them or create costs for these people by having them mail stuff, usualy overnight. My advice is to not do that. For one, the more you communicate with these people the more information you are giving them. Depending on the type of item or service you are buying/selling you may be giving them enough information that they can steal your identity and cause all kinds of problems/hassles for you.
These people are “bad guys” and you don’t know exactly how far they will go to prove just how bad they are. Some reports have them contacting victims repeatedly at home and work constantly harrassing them. If you saw someone robbing a bank would you want to go “mess with them”? Probably not. So, if suspect a scammer, go ahead report the email account to CL or in some situations to the local authorities, but don’t make it worse by wasting any additional time with these low-lifes.
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I might as well mention a few baseball players since this is a baseball blog, aye? Okie-dokie, here’s a few names that are catchign my eye these days. Oh wait, one last commentary on life. Have you seen those new KFC ads promoting their new grilled chicken? You know the commercials with the people dancing around? Well, why are all the people normal except the asian-americans? I mean, c’mon, seriously. Is it really neccessary to have them dancing around in some lame kung-fu ninja outfits while chomping down on this supposedly tasty new chicken?! None of the other people are dressed in some stereo-type garb acting foolish…well, they all look foolish, but they’re at least dressed in regular clothes.
I’m just saying, somewhere out there, Bruce Lee is rolling in his grave.
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Okay, now let’s talk some baseball! Here’s some names of players who I think you should snatch up if they are still hanging out on the free agent list.
- Carlos Gonzalez OF COL – Was mashing in the minors and with the Rocks about to waive the white flag on ’09, they should take a long looksy at what they got back as part of the Matt Holliday trade.
- Ian Stewart IF/OF COL – With this latest spurt of power, he’s has entrenched himself as a regular starter for several weeks, at least. Garret Atkins will lose some ABs in the process.
- Alberto Callaspo 2B KC – Has been pretty consistent all year and has even shown some pop lately with a grand slam on Wednesday. Owned in 35% of CBS leagues, he can help a lot of fantasy teams out there.
- Colby Rasmus OF STL - The injuries to other redbird outfielders gave him enough ABs to get comfortable and now he’s starting to show his true potential. Keep these letters in mind R-O-Y!
- Gil Meche SP KC – Meche, who was supposed to be an over-paid, Barry Zito-type bust for the Royals a couple of years ago, has been solid his past few starts including setting a new high in Ks in his last start, with 11. He’s bulked up and is flat out nasty.
- Juan Pierre OF LAD – With the latest report that Pierre will head back to the bench when Manny returns, there is all of a sudden this air of gloom surrounding this hot speedster. Did anyone really expect that Juan-Gone had actually replaced Man-Ram as the starting LF in LA-LA land?! Seriously!? Scoop up Pierre now and enjoy another productive month before Manny returns and don’t be surprised if he ends up with a solid amount of ABs at the end of the year, even if not all are as a member of the Dodgers.
Okay, that’s a wrap! Have a great day!
-Johnny Archive
Buy & Sell – Ross is Boss
Buy & Sell
by Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
Note: Ownership is based in Yahoo! Leagues.
Three to Buy
Cody Ross (.255/.308/.453, 13% Ownership)
Ross has picked it up of late after coming out of the gates very slowly as he has been given the everyday centerfield job after the demotion of Cameron Maybin. Over the last ten days, Ross has improved hit batting average by over twenty points. Because of this, Ross has been hitting in the middle of lethal Marlins batting order, which means plenty of RBI opportunities. One thing to note in daily leagues: Ross has an OPS of .943 against left-handers this season. So if you are looking for a power-hitting outfielder, Ross may be your guy.
Jason Giambi (.217/.353/.389, 22% Ownership)
I know that the batting average isn’t very appealing, but the veteran Giambi has been hitting well of late. Remember last year, Giambi started out slowly only to turn it on over the summer and ended 2008 with 32 home runs. Managers should also note that in the month of June, Giambi has a career batting line of .299/.427/.586, which is his best in any month. For those Carlos Delgado owners who are looking for a replacement first baseman, Giambi should fill in nicely.
Carl Pavano (6-4, 4.63 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 72 IP, 56 K, 19% Ownership)
Once the scorn of Yankee fans, Pavano has begun to turn around his career while pitching for the Cleveland Indians. Pavano has pitched effectively since the beginning of May and has beaten some high-powered offenses in Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay. His stats could actually be even better as his .322 BABIP suggests that he has had some bad luck and bad defense played behind him. For all of his struggles and injuries while he was in New York, it is easy to forget that Pavano was in fact a quality pitcher for the Marlins. It looks like he could be reverting to that old form.
Three to Sell
Dan Haren (4-4, 2.42 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 78 IP, 78 K, 98% Ownership)
Haren has simply been dominating so far this season. That is precisely why owners should be looking to sell now. His .235 BABIP suggests that Haren could be in line for some troubling starts ahead. Also, it appears that Arizona has been pushing Haren pretty hard as he is among the league leaders in innings pitched. This could lead to Haren following his career pattern of fading during the second half of a season. For his career, his ERA before the All-Star break is 3.23 and after it is 4.12. Make the move now while the value is high.
Edwin Jackson (5-3, 2.30 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 74.1 IP, 57 K, 79% Ownership)
Jackson has turned it all together this season. He has gone from being madly inconsistent to one of the best pitchers in the American League. This is one of the reasons why I am not trusting Mr. Jackson. We have six seasons of data and Jackson has never produced results close to what he is doing now. He has a very low BABIP of .245, which means he has been very fortunate so far. Considering that Jackson is pitching in the rough and tumble American League, it is reasonable to think that he will revert to his previous self.
Dustin Pedroia (.321/.415/.426, 98% Ownership)
Pedroia was drafted aggressively coming of his MVP season of 2008. But we don’t really know if 2008 is going to be his standard season or if it was an outlier. What would worry me if I owned Pedroia is that Boston has moved him to the lead off spot. This will cut down is RBI chances, which obviously brings down his value. Also, if not for the struggles of David Ortiz, fans would be complaining about Pedroia’s power outage. He has hit only two home runs so far and looks more like the 2007 Pedroia rather than the all around contributor from 2008.
Name to remember…Ryan Madson, Phil.-RP. Closer Brad Lidge has battled a knee injury that has caused him to struggle this season. Because of this, Madson may get moved into the closer role. He certainly is accustomed to pitching in big moments, as he was a key member of last year’s World Series team. Madson also has the stuff to be a closer. He has a K/9 rate of 9.57 so even if doesn’t take over the closer role, he will provide strikeouts and help out the ratio stats for your team.

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