Houston History
The Astros' Second Half Surge
by Matt "Hack"Hackenmiller
The Houston Astros have had many unique aspects to their team history. First, it was having the first dome stadium in baseball. Next, it was the wonderfully colored uniforms of the 70s and 80s. Then, when the Astrodome became outdated, the Astros built a new park, which was sponsored by Enron, one of the most fraudulent companies in business. Now, the Astros have become known as a team that is almost unbeatable after the All-Star break. But what has lead to the phenomena? Are the Astros able to flick a switch right after the Midsummer Classic and become a different team?
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Chart I. Houston's Record Breakdown |
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Fist Half |
Second Half | |
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2002 |
41-45 |
43-33 |
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2003 |
50-44 |
37-31 |
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2004 |
44-44 |
48-26 |
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2005 |
44-43 |
45-30 |
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2006 |
43-46 |
39-34 |
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2007 |
39-50 |
34-39 |
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2008 |
44-51 |
42-24 |
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Total |
305-323 |
288-217 |
As you can see from Chart I, going back to 2002, the Astros have a much better record during the second half of the season. It is not even a slight the difference. Pre All-Star break, the Astros play less than .500 ball. After the break, they play at a .570 clip. That's a tremendous split. During this time period, the Astros have used this formula to make two playoff appearances and one World Series. One of the things that make these midseason turnarounds peculiar is that outside of the trade for Carlos Beltran, the Astros haven't made many alterations to their rosters once the season begins.
It can be argued, however, that these second surges have actually been a detriment to the development of the organization as a whole. Because the organization has felt that the team can make a run for the division title, they have always been buyers at the trade deadline. By continually giving away talented prospects for aging veterans, it has left the Astros' roster with many bloated contracts and their minor league system very bare.
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Chart II. Houston V. Little Brother Since 2002 |
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Cincinnati |
74-38 |
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Pittsburgh |
68-45 |
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Milwaukee |
64-53 |
The question remains, how are the Astros able to accomplish this seemingly year after year? I think it is more of an indictment of how poor the National League Central has been this decade. For the most part, the St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, and the Astros have dominated the division. Of the other three teams-the Brewers, Pirates and Reds-only Milwaukee have looked to turn things around later in the decade. Since 2002, 35% of the Astros' wins have come against those teams that have finished towards the bottom of the division. On the other hand, only 25% of their losses have come against those teams. With baseball employing an unbalanced schedule, teams play more games against division opponents, especially towards the end of the season. So it may not be that the Astros are playing any different after the All-Star break, just their schedule gets easier as it allows them to beat up on the weaker divisional teams.
It appears that the Astros are gearing up to make their annual midseason run again in 2009. They are aided by the fact that once again, there isn't one dominating team within the division. Also, they have 20 games remaining versus the little brothers of the National League Central. This likely means the Astros' ownership will continue to mortgage the future in hopes of making one more run at a title. In the end, it is probably better to be known for these reoccurring second half surges rather than for what good old Joe Niekro use to have to wear.
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