Leo The Lion?
Players On The Spot
Leo Nunez-Can Anyone Get Saves?
Leo Nunez entered the 2009 season as a serviceable middle relief pitcher for the Florida Marlins. For most of his short career, Nunez has been just another bullpen guy with inconsistent control. But part way through the season, the Marlins found themselves in need of a closer so they turned to Nunez and his mid 90s heat. Nunez went on to save 26 games and stabilize a position that had been a problem for the Marlins for a number of years.
Because of his success, Nunez went from relative obscurity to someone that Fantasy Baseball managers are targeting. But is this the dawning of a new era for closers? Not necessarily. Although Nunez has the opportunity to repeat last year’s numbers, it should be pointed out that this is a guy that has a 4.66 career ERA. Also last season his K/BB, HR/9, and FIP were all above the league average. Relief pitchers who walk batters and give up home runs usually don’t find a lot of success in baseball. Lastly, it is one thing to get when your team is out of contention, as the Marlins were for much of last season. It is another thing, however, to be given a job from Spring Training and be expected to handle the pressure all season long. With this said, fantasy owners may want to look else where when trying to win their saves category this season.
Howie Kendrick-Still Waiting On That Batting Title
Howie Kendrick arrived to the Major Leagues in 2006 as one of the most hyped players in the Los Angeles Angels farm system. Scouts hailed him as a “batting title waiting to happen”. Well, we are still waiting for that batting title. Actually, we are still waiting for Kendrick to make it through a season without him being sent down to the minors.
Kendrick is a classic hacker, as he doesn’t like to take a walk, yet he doesn’t strike out an inordinate amount of time. This must be a result of watching Vladimir Guerrero for so many seasons. The majority of Kendrick’s fantasy value lies in batting average because he hasn’t hit for much power yet and tied a career high with 11 stolen bases last season. The pressure is definitely on Kendrick this season after the Angels allowed Chone Figgins to leave via free agency and traded away up and comer Sean Rodriguez. If Kendrick struggles early, the Angels maybe forced to look elsewhere to fill the keystone position.
-Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
Quick Hitters
Quick hitters
Julio Borbon – This kid might be the most dazzling player in the game. He has speed, pop and just makes the game more exciting. Fantasy owners should love watching all the highlights he’ll make this year. Just don’t forget that many times these type of players are more injury prone.
Carlos Gonzalez – A legit 25-25 guy this year with 30-30 not that far out of reach. Just a smooth player that will become a household name by the time the allstar break rolls around. I started promoting this talented outfielder last summer when I saw him in Triple A.
Erick Aybar – I have never paid this speedster too much attention because he was part of a crowded infoeld situation in Anaheim. But Chone Figgins is in Seattle and Angels manager Mike Scioscia prefers to have slotted players that fit into his master plan. John Zaleski, of Ultimate Fantasy Sports and a founding member of the FSTA, is very high on this kid and that endorsement carries significant weight. Zaleski has a long and proven track record in fantasy sports, but he always has a great feel for Angels players.
Taylor Teagarden – Whoever is the catcher of the Texas Rangers is almost always a factor for fantasy owners. The big — and extremely long — name for the past couple of years has been Jarrod Saltalamacchia who came over in the Mark Teixeira trade with Atlanta, but Teagarden might be the guy who emerges as the more productive backstop in 2010 and beyond. “Salty” can’t seem to stay healthy and “Tea” is showing some consistency at the plate.
Sean Rodriguez – This former Angels infielder who is now with the Rays is turning into a sexy pick for sleeper hunters the past week or so. Again, I was touting “Sean-Rod” last summer when he came to Round Rock as a minor leaguer. The bat has always been his strength, but like many Angels player, locking him to a position has been difficult. He’s been listed as a 2B, but could easily play 3B and still offer fantasy value. Keep him on your radar and if the ABs are there, the production will be as well.
Brian Roberts – His ADP has been taking a real spanking the last couple of weeks as he has been dealing with a back issue. I can see this being a typical example of some spring training injury rumors causing a player to drop and thus making him a real bargain on draft day. This is one of the elite second baseman, so if he slips in your draft, nab him and smile. He more than likely will be ready for opening day and by May nobody will even remember the missed time in March.
Just an overall note. I am actually fairly happy to see some of the players I suggested fantasiers keep an eye on last year emerging as players to watch by more mainstream sites. Players like Sean Rodriguez, Sammy Gervacio, Carlos Gonzalez and Chris Perez were all amoung the players I highly encouraged fantasy owners take fliers on and it likes those who did will get rewarded.
Don’t totally disregard Carlos Gomez and Mike Aviles, either. They both have opportunites to make an impact this year for relatively little investments.
-Johnny Archive
Young Chase
Players On The Spot
Chase Headley-The San Diego Padres’ Most Important Hitter
Headley arrived in the major leagues with post-Ryan Braun hype, meaning any minor leaguer with any type of hype was expected to immediately rake at the major league level like Braun. But things haven’t worked out well for Headley as he settles in for his third season with the Padres. He hasn’t hit for the power everyone expected and while some of that can be blamed on PETCO Park, Headley has hit more groundballs and made less contact than the league average. These characteristics don’t lend well to a corner outfielder and a middle of the order hitter.
So with all of this uncertainty and negativity surrounding Headley, why is he so important to San Diego? First, Headley is going to be the man hitting behind All Star Adrian Gonzalez. If Headley continues to struggle, opposing teams will simply pitch around Gonzalez and not allow the Padres one great hitter to beat them. Second, Headley has played left field the last two years, but played third in the minors. So over the winter the Padres traded away their only other power source, outside of Gonzalez, in Kevin Kouzmanoff, to free up third base. There is some thought around baseball that having Headley play an unnatural position caused him to struggle at the plate. Whatever the reason, this it is Headley’s position to loose and if he struggles expect the Padres struggles to continue as well.
Players On The Spot
Delmon Young-The Days May Be Dwindling
I really wanted to start off by making a Young and the Restless reference, but that kind of thing is as tired as Young’s game itself. Delmon is a very talented player, although he has yet to really follow through on that talent. There are some obvious things wrong with his game, most notably plate discipline. Last season, Young struck out 92 times while walking only in 12 plate appearances. I don’t care what type of league you are playing in, that’s not good. This lack of judgment caused Young to not find pitches he can drive, which lead to his Jack Wilson-like OPS. Yet, with all this said, Young is still only 24 years old so he still has time to develop his game.
The Minnesota Twins need Young to deliver this season to add some right-handed balance to the likes of Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel. But this is also a significant season for Young on a personal level as well. There is usually a series of measures that teams do when a young player struggles. Organizations will send a player back to the minors, bench them, change positions, bring in another player for competition and finally trade the struggling player. Looking back over Young’s short career, he has already gone through most of those. So in actuality this may be Young’s last shot at a starting job at the major league level. His days as an arbitration eligible player are coming to an end, which means his chances of cashing in on a big time contract are becoming less and less. More importantly, this may be his last opportunity to become an All Star rather than a bust that had tremendous amount of potential.
-Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
2010 NFBC St. Louis Quick Notes
I returned safely today from my voyage north to attend the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, or NFBC, in St. Louis, Missouri at the Pujols 5 Westwood Grill. By the way, no deer were harmed in the making of this article…thank goodness! Matter of fact, I actually got the Archive-mobile back from the shop today. Woot!
I have to give some props to Fanball.com and more specifically Mike Sheets, who was the site coordinator for the events held in St. Louis, for doing a fantastic job of hosting several high-dollar fantasy baseball drafts. Sheets and his staff were extremely friendly and professional in their collective conduct and interaction with the owners participating in the various leagues, which included the $1300 per team entry fee main event.
All the owners were there early and eager to dive into the draft…well not exactly “all’. There was one owner who hurried his way into the draft room just 2 minutes prior to the start. That man was non-other than Pat DePirro, yes the same guy we all know as Fantasy 411 co-host Cory Schwartz’s friend, who was wearing a New York Yankees jersey which drew a few jeers from the other owners — primarily from the 2 owners who took advantage of a huge, not-quite-open-to-the-public-yet bar that was located just outside the draft room.
“So, that’s how you treat a world champion?” quipped DePirro as he settled into his seat, which caused the room to erupt in laughter and at the same time silence the jesters.
I actually spent some time speaking with DePirro after the draft and he was quite honest about a few picks that he admitted he was not exactly thrilled with. He went down the list of players, round-by-round, mentioning which ones he knew Schwartz “hated”.
DePirro and Schwartz exchanged text messages during the live draft, but since they have been friends for many, many years, DePirro says he already knows which type of players Schwartz targets.
“We agree on a lot of players, but we definitely argue about some too” says DePirro, who actually co-owned teams with Schwartz in prior NFBC events.
It was great to meet fellow hard-core fantasy baseball fans at the event and especially DePirro since I had heard about him for many years on the 411. I met up with another long-time friend, FSTA founding member John Zaleski, at the event and I’ll discuss that in more detail in a future blog. It was great meeting and talking with all the guys — and gals, yes some very knowledgable wives/girlfriends were there too — and I can’t wait to go back next year…especially as a participant.
Merry Mariners
The Seattle Mariners Plan of Attack
by Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
The Seattle Mariners made a big splash this off season by signing several free agents and making a couple of trades. There has been a lot of talk amongst the media that the Mariners are now the favorites to win the American League West and possibly make a deep run into the playoffs. For all the positive work the organization did over the winter I think that they may still fall short come October.
The Mariners had the worst offense in the American League last season. Their team OPS was.716 which was nearly fifty points below the league average. In fact, they ranked at or near the bottom in just about every offensive category. To fix this problem, the Mariners went out and signed Chone Figgins and traded for outfielder Milton Bradley. Before we move on, let’s take a look at those signings a little more closely.
Figgins was signed to a four year 36 million dollar contract after having one of his best years for the Los Angeles Angels. His game is all about getting on base and speed. He doesn’t have the power that is typically required by most third sackers, which means that eventually Figgins will have to move to second base. Even for how good Figgins is, this was still a curious signing by Seattle. The Mariners need power and they sign a slap hitting third baseman? They signed a thirty-two year old speed player to a four year contract? The first time Figgins suffers any type of leg injury, he will begin to loose value.
That leads us to Milton Bradley. Oh, where to start with Uncle Milty? Bradley was acquired as part of a salary dump by the Chicago Cubs, which makes the Mariners the twentieth team that Bradley has played for. No, obviously, it is not twenty teams. More like eight teams in ten years. The Mariners organization is using the standard phrases like, “He needed a change of scenery” and “He has been misunderstood” when describing Bradley and he has stayed true to his character by saying it wasn’t his fault for what happened in Chicago last season. But everyone knows that all it is going to take is a bad call by an umpire or a disagreement with management and Mount Milton will erupt and it won’t be pretty. Yet with all the negativity and turmoil surround Bradley, the Mariners are expecting him to play leftfield and bat third in their line up. Also, let’s not forget that he has played in more than 140 games only once in his career. To me, he is not someone a team should depend on to be a key figure in a offense.
|
Table I. |
Age |
2009 OPS |
|
Rob Johnson |
26 |
0.615 |
|
Casey Kotchman |
27 |
0.721 |
|
Chone Figgins |
32 |
0.789 |
|
Jose Lopez |
26 |
0.766 |
|
Jack Wilson |
32 |
0.654 |
|
Milton Bradley |
32 |
0.775 |
|
Franklin Gutierrez |
27 |
0.764 |
|
Ichiro Suzuki |
36 |
0.851 |
|
Ken Griffey Jr. |
40 |
0.735 |
Based on their two big additions over the winter, it is easy to see that the Mariners didn’t really improve upon their biggest need, which was adding power to their line up because for some reason a team that is in a desperate need for power, the Mariners chose not to bring back their home run leader, Russell Branyan. Table I. shows the age and OPS of the expected Seattle nine. As this shows, five of the starters are over thirty and none are the rest are the “up and coming” type of players. Actually, besides Ichiro, Figgins and Gutierrez the rest are either past their prime or never had a prime.
The other glaring point on why the Mariners will struggle this year is that they greatly over preformed last season. They had a negative run differential and still found a way to have winning record. This was mainly due to their 35-20 record in one run
games, which tends to be unsustainable from year to year. But allowing more runs than
|
Table II. |
W-L |
Diff. |
ExWL |
|
2009 |
85-77 |
-52 |
75-87 |
|
2008 |
61-101 |
-140 |
66-96 |
|
2007 |
88-75 |
-27 |
79-84 |
scored is a trend that has occurred over the three seasons in Seattle. In two of the last three seasons, the Mariners have been able to produce winning records despite being out scored for the season. Not surprisingly, based on that information, their expected wins have been dramatically different than their actual wins. Have the Mariners uncovered some secret formula that will forever change baseball? Not quite. This is a great example of Bill James’ Plexiglass Principle, which states that a team that improves significantly in one season tends to decline the following year. So using this line of thinking, Seattle should be expected to regress somewhat in 2010. Another recent example of this would be the 2007-2008 Arizona Diamondbacks. In 2007, Arizona had a winning record and made the playoffs despite having a -20 run differential. The following year, the team played around .500 ball for most of the season and missed out on the playoffs.
Of course, I have yet to mention the real reason for optimism in Seattle. During the winter, the Mariners made the big trade for Cliff Lee, a perennial Cy Young Award candidate, who they can pair up with Felix Hernandez. While I agree that adding a pitcher like Lee will make any team better, I still question the rest of the starting staff. After Lee and Hernandez the Mariners are going to run out the likes of Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ian Snell, and Doug Fister. None of these guys will make fans forget about Randy Johnson. What I am trying to say that since Lee and Hernandez can’t pitch every other day, the Mariners will probably struggle to find victories those other three days of the week.
I think the Seattle Mariners will be a contenting club in 2010, however, I don’t see them as a favorite in the American League West. The Texas Rangers are on the rise and they have a lot of pitching and hitting depth on their rosters. The Angles will be a tough team once again and the Oakland A’s have constructed a quality pitching staff. So by no means, will the Mariners run away with the division title. What will probably happen is that Seattle will play more closely to there 2009 expect win total and most of the media will proclaim that they have underachieved. But actually, Seattle will play at their talent level, which won’t have them playing in October.
J.A.I.L. Draft Day 2010
Sharpen your shanks, because it’s time to go to JAIL, go directly to JAIL, do NOT pass go, do NOT collect $200 dollars. Instead, play your cards right, keep your head down, and most importantly, stay ALIVE and collect almost $1000!
Yes, indeed, it’s time for J.A.I.L DRAFT 2010.
Joining the institution as “fresh meat” in 2010 are three solid teams with these intense fantasy scoundrels calling the shots; Joel Henard & Troy Millikan (Carlos Spicy Weiner), Chris Savarese (La Cosa Nostra) and Steve Kurtek (Omar Minaya & Ed Wade’s Murder Inc).
Back to defend their title are 2009 champs, Bill and Brian Brickley (Monster Mash). Keith Wire (Death Row Doggies), who is also representing the J.A.I.L. in the NFBC this year, brings the best keeper (Tim Lincecum, Evan Longoria, and Kevin Youkilis) list — as voted on by the owners of the JAIL — into the ’10 season. Jeremiah “Miah” Rogers (Firewyrm Bad Mofos), who is always up to something, decided to go against the grain with three keepers and stashed all stud pitchers (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Brian Wilson).
More than faces in the crowd, these elite fantasiers will round out the participants to see who will emerge as the Alpha Dog of the J.A.I.L. in 2010: Joe Lano (Jersey Hitmen), David Miller (Bombo Rivera AllStar Squad), Brandon Doran (Folsom Prison Blues), Brennan Brown (Green Mountain Boys), Brent Voorhees (Lone Star State Looters), Hal Groves (Pants On The Ground Felons), John Page (PBR Streetgang), Carlton Brown (Ramblers In Hell), and of course, Johnny Archive (Johnny Archive Army).
It’s going to be a special year as we expand to 15 teams this year, which makes this league even more difficult to conquer. Tune into The Johnny Archive Fantasy Baseball Show live Sunday March 14 at 6PM ET for a full hour of J.A.I.L. Draft coverage, including a full recap of the early rounds.
For updates all season long, head over to JohnnyArchive.com for standings and links to blog coverage.
Pitchers Galore!
Hey Gang,
I just completed an auction style draft at CBS Sports and I thought I would share the results with you. I just joined this 15-team mixed keeper league this year and so I had to adjust to the hand that was dealt to me, keeper-wise.
The main strength was relatively cheap starting pitchers Chris Carpenter and Yovani Gallrado for $1 and $5 respectively, before contract extensions. I had two other decent arms in Max Scherzer and Ervin Santana. I had a solid start to my staff so you’d probably expect me to focus on bats in the draft, right?
Not so fast, my friend.
I entered the draft with two plans and room to adjust either. The first was indeed to spend some big bucks on a couple of big ol’ bats and nab some cheap speed late, probably via the outfield. The other idea, which is what I went with, was to lock up some stud pitchers and really nail down the pitcher categories. Going that route meant I’d be gambling that I could get production from some young talented players like Mat Gamel and Matt LaPorta — who we all know were big time prospects the last couple of years.
Well, that’s not totally accurate. I’m not basing my whole offense on these two players, but the reality is I can’t put together the type of rotation and staff that I did and not be affected in other areas. So, I am going to need some players to emerge for the hitting cats that have significant question marks.
Let me also say that almost every year I designate one of my fantasy teams that will be a pitching-heavy squad. Spending more time focused on pitching — on at least one team –really helps my other teams because I know what it feels like to roster big-name pitchers. I’m not sure I’m explaining this very well, but I approach a baseball season as just that, “a season” which encompasses all my fantasy teams.
For instance, I won one CBS league and finished third in my NFBC league, which for many people would be a fairly successful year. But for me, I was not overly thrilled because I finished in the mid-to-bottom of the standings in my five other leagues. So, overall, I was disappointed.
Anyway, back to the Bleacher Bums auction draft, which by the way, is run by J.A.I.L. member Brennen Brown. The trigger for me was the bidding for the bats, if the other owners were overpaying for them, I would zig back into acquiring a couple of key pitchers – even if it meant paying full price - and hopefully end up with a dominate staff.
I locked in on Johan Santana and Jake Peavy who are both former 1-2 top pitchers, but are back with the pack of grade “A” aces now and therefore easier to get. Johan cost me $29 and Peavy $22. I spent more on closers, too. I decided to get two proven guys and take a flier on a third. But after adding K-Rod at $15 and F-Cor (Francisco Cordero) at $11, I bid a few times on Jose Valverde and ended up getting him for $15.
My offensive players are made up from balance. That’s to say I don’t have big name boppers at 1B. I could really use Ryan Doumit to stay healthy this year, which is asking a lot, I know. There’s another 4-5 guys who will need to have bounce back years for me to have any chance at getting enough overall hitting points to contend.
Players like Garrett Atkins, Manny Ramirez, Mike Aviles, and Willy Taveras. Sure, many fantasiers have written some, if not all, of them off for 2010 and beyond, but stranger things have happened.
Essentially, my team could get some breaks and be a major factor or I could finish as a bottom feeder. And I can live with that.
| Active Batters | MLB | 4/4 | 4/5 | 4/6 | 4/7 | 4/8 | 4/9 | 4/10 |
Salary | Contract | Trade | Own % | Start % | Status | Pos |
| Doumit, Ryan C PIT | A | LA | LA | LA | @ARI | @ARI | 11 | Y0 | T | 76 | 61 | ActiveReserve | CU | ||
| Olivo, Miguel C COL | A | @MIL | @MIL | @MIL | SD | SD | 9 | Y1 | T | 29 | 21 | ActiveReserve | CU | ||
Atkins, Garrett 3B BAL  |
A | @TB | @TB | @TB | TOR | TOR | 6 | 3Y3* | T | 37 | 16 | ActiveReserve | 1B3BCIU | ||
| Phillips, Brandon 2B CIN | A | STL | STL | STL | CHC | CHC | 27 | Y0* | T | 94 | 89 | ActiveReserve | 2BMIU | ||
| Cantu, Jorge 1B FLA | A | @NYM | @NYM | @NYM | LA | LA | 13 | Y1 | T | 86 | 68 | ActiveReserve | 1B3BCIU | ||
Hardy, J.J. SS MIN  |
A | @ANA | @ANA | @ANA | @ANA | @CHW | @CHW | 7 | Y2 | T | 42 | 20 | ActiveReserve | MISSU | |
| Uggla, Dan 2B FLA | A | @NYM | @NYM | @NYM | LA | LA | 20 | Y1 | T | 92 | 86 | ActiveReserve | 2BMIU | ||
Gamel, Mat 3B MIL   |
A | COL | COL | COL | STL | STL | 3 | Y0 | T | 11 | 1 | ActiveReserve | 3BCIU | ||
| Byrd, Marlon CF CHC | A | @ATL | @ATL | @ATL | @CIN | @CIN | 2 | Y1 | T | 43 | 31 | ActiveReserve | OFU | ||
| Fox, Jake 3B OAK | A | SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA | @ANA | @ANA | 6 | Y1 | T | 21 | 8 | ActiveReserve | 3BCIOFU | |
| LaPorta, Matt LF CLE |
A | @CHW | @CHW | @CHW | @DET | @DET | 10 | 1Y2 | T | 37 | 19 | ActiveReserve | OFU | ||
| Ramirez, Manny LF LA | A | @PIT | @PIT | @PIT | @FLA | @FLA | 26 | Y1* | T | 94 | 90 | ActiveReserve | OFU | ||
| Taveras, Willy CF WAS | M | PHI | PHI | PHI | @NYM | @NYM | 3 | Y0* | T | 17 | 4 | ActiveReserveMinors | OFU | ||
Aviles, Mike SS KC  |
A | DET | DET | DET | BOS | BOS | 1 | Y1 | T | 10 | 3 | ActiveReserve | MISSU | ||
| Active Pitchers | MLB | 4/4 | 4/5 | 4/6 | 4/7 | 4/8 | 4/9 | 4/10 |
Salary | Contract | Trade | Own % | Start % | Status | Pos |
| Carpenter, Chris SP STL | A | @CIN | @CIN | @CIN | @MIL | @MIL | 6 | 1y2 | T | 91 | 82 | ActiveReserve | SP | ||
| Gallardo, Yovani SP MIL |
A | COL | COL | COL | STL | STL | 10 | 1y2 | T | 79 | 50 | ActiveReserve | SP | ||
| Peavy, Jake SP CHW |
A | CLE | CLE | CLE | MIN | MIN | 22 | 4Y4* | T | 87 | 42 | ActiveReserve | SP | ||
| Santana, Ervin SP ANA |
A | MIN | MIN | MIN | MIN | OAK | OAK | 3 | Y0 | T | 83 | 62 | ActiveReserve | SP | |
| Santana, Johan SP NYM |
A | FLA | FLA | FLA | WAS | WAS | 29 | Y2* | T | 70 | 31 | ActiveReserve | SP | ||
| Scherzer, Max SP DET | A | @KC | @KC | @KC | CLE | CLE | 5 | Y2 | T | 79 | 51 | ActiveReserve | SP | ||
| Cordero, Francisco RP CIN | A | STL | STL | STL | CHC | CHC | 11 | Y1 | T | 84 | 76 | ActiveReserve | RP | ||
| Rodriguez, Francisco J. RP NYM |
A | FLA | FLA | FLA | WAS | WAS | 15 | Y2* | T | 88 | 79 | ActiveReserve | RP | ||
| Valverde, Jose RP DET |
A | @KC | @KC | @KC | CLE | CLE | 15 | Y1 | T | 80 | 70 | ActiveReserve | RP | ||
| TOTALS | Active: 23, Active Salary: 260, Total Salary: 260 | ||||||||||||||
-Johnny Archive
The highly anticipated J.A.I.L. draft is tomorrow at 5PM ET, tune into the Johnny Archive podcast at BlogTalkRadio for live coverage and recaps of the top rounds.
Say It Ain’t So, Joe
Joe Nathan’s Injury
by Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
The big injury news of Spring Training has been the elbow injury to Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan. If the ligament tear proves to be too severe, Nathan may have to have Tommy John surgery, which would mean that he would miss the entire 2010 season. This news not only puts a cloud on the Twins forthcoming season, but for many fantasy baseball managers as well. Although Nathan ranks as one of the top closers in the game, should we have seen something like this coming?
Since Nathan plays for a small market team that usually doesn’t garner that much attention, he is sometimes forgotten about. I am sure that most people would be surprised to find out that Nathan is actually 35 years old, which isn’t old in the real world, but in baseball, especially pitchers, that is an age when most players start to break down. Nathan has been so consistently dominant the past six years that he has pitched as if he is in his mid-20s not mid-30s.
For those of you that are like me and follow the Twins quite closely, it was easy to see that towards the end of the season, there was something off about Nathan. His fastball had lost some juice, he started to throw more breaking balls and his walk rate was up. This was pretty clear in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Yankees. When Nathan faced Alex Rodriguez late in the game, he threw if four straight sliders to start the at bat. When Nathan fell behind and had to throw a fastball, it didn’t have anything on it and Rodriguez took him deep. Obviously, there was something wrong as Nathan did have off season surgery on his elbow to remove bone spurs in his right elbow. But no one knows how long Nathan pitched in that condition and what affect that it ultimately had on his ligaments.
When it comes to starting pitching, there have been many advancements in understanding how a pitcher develops. Strategies like not pushing a young pitcher past 150 innings, pitcher abuse points and the Verducci Effect are all ideas that many clubs use when developing pitchers. But there has been very little of this such work when it comes to relief pitchers. There isn’t a magic number of appearances or innings for relief pitchers like there are for starters. Because of this, relief pitching is one of the most volatile positions on a roster. So the fact that Joe Nathan and Mario Rivera have been dominate closers into their mid to late 30s is more of an anomaly when discussing relief pitchers.
No one can predict when an injury is going to happen. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that we should be shocked when one occurs especially when examining the facts. Joe Nathan is an older pitcher that had arm troubles early in his career and had surgery over the winter. Nathan has proved many people wrong by becoming one of the best closers in the game so it is a safe bet that he can prove those same people wrong again by coming back from this injury.
SS = Super Speed
New Age of Super Shortstops
by Johnny Archive
In the past, fantasy owners drooled over big-time productions from unlikely positions (i.e., catcher, shortstop, and second base), primarily because there were so few of them. Back in the ’60s and ’70s, MLB teams would gladly suffer a deficiency of offensive production in exchange for a solid glove in the field, which would inevitably help their pitchers – who were arguably the stars of the team.
You might get some speed from a player like “The Wizard” Ozzie Smith, for example, was never a home run threat, but he could steal you some bases. Sure, the ground game on the bases was nice, but his glovework is what really mattered. Well, that and his ability to do gymnastics on the way to his position.
Then came the ’80s and we saw a change. Baseball franchises wanted offense. Why? Because the fans seemed to dig an 8-6 game with four homers over a well-pitched 2-1 “classic.” This was also the time when television networks were devoting more airtime to sports and shows like ESPN and SportsCenter were emerging onto the scene. It’s hard to condense a nine-inning, three-hitter into a 60-second video clip. However, loading up two or three HR bombs during a highlight package was easy as, well, 1-2-3.
Is it really a coincidence that around the same time there began an influx of offense from traditional defensive positions? Sure, we think of Cal Ripken, Jr. as “Mr. Ironman,” but would he really have played as often if not for his power numbers from the SS position? He did have an accurate arm and was a sure-handed ball-gobbler for anything within his range, but he didn’t cover near the ground as a lot of other shortstops from that era. I’d suggest it was his offense that enabled him to play a huge chunk of those games.
But I digress, the point of this article is not to, in anyway, undermine a true baseball legend, which the classy Ripken, Jr. is without question.
In the late ’80s, Barry Larkin of the Reds also brought, with his slick fielding, a propensity to drive in runs. This seemed to open the door for a trio of outright superstar shortstops in the ’90s; Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez. I’m sure many baseball fans and fantasiers recall debating which player was “the best” among those studs when they were all in their prime and playing SS exclusively.
1999
Derek Jeter 24 HR / 102 RBI / 19 SB / 134 R / .349 AVG
Alex Rodriguez 42 HR / 124 RBI / 21 SB / 110 R / .285 AVG
Nomar Garciaparra 27 HR / 104 RBI / 14 SB / 103 R / .357 AVG
In fact, the main point here is to address the direction of MLB offenses and of the emerging shortstops that bring excellent glove skills and a proficient ability to run. Yes, the post-roid era appears to be all about speed. To that, I humbly offer these fine young players:
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Hanley Ramirez FLA 27 SB / 576 AB
Elvis Andrus TEX 33 SB / 480 AB
Alcides Escobar MIL 4 SB / 125 AB
Everth Cabrera SD 25 SB / 377 AB
Asdrubal Cabrera CLE 17 SB / 523 AB
Now, there’s still a modern day Ripken, Jr. and his name is Troy Tulowitzki of the Colordao Rockies. But he brings power to the position — I know, so does Han-Ram and that’s why I almost didn’t include him on this list. Indeed, there were a few boppers who tried to emerge at shortstop in the past few years. Players like Bobby Crosby, Khalil Greene and Jhonny Peralta. But they have moved to thirdbase or in the case of Greene working on outside baseball issues. The bottom line is they were not true shortstops and definitely not built for the future.
JAFBS Notes For 03/07/10
Hey there,
Today on The Johnny Archive Fantasy Baseball Show we’ll talk about all the latest news from spring training including some big-time injury news. We’ll also recap my trip last weekend to Surprise, AZ, including why the show cut off with 4 minutes to go last week.
We’ll feature a funny baseball story from comedian, Mike Birbiglia involving Roger Clemens and Dennis Eckersley.
See you at 6PM ET and as always thank you for making the podcast one of the most listened to at BlogTalkRadio.com for the 3rd straight year.
-JA
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