Results tagged ‘ Buy & Sell ’
Lackey No Slackey
Buy & Sell
Note: Ownership is based in Yahoo! Leagues.
Three to Buy
Alfonso Soriano (.230/.269/.423, 98% Ownership)
Soriano has fallen on some hard times during June. Always a free swinger, Soriano has not been producing his usual results. A nagging knee injury has caused his batting average to drop to unaccustomed places. Even with that injury, he is still on pace for a 30 HR 17 SB season. Also, his BABIP sits at a low .262 when Soriano is typically around the league average in that category. Some owner may be tired of his slump and now would be a great time to buy on Soriano
Troy Tulowitzki (.253/.346/.469, 88% Ownership)
Tulo has had an up and down season so far. The first few weeks, he was hot, then went through a slump and had a hand injury. Now it look like Tulo is fully healed and ready to return to his 2007 levels. The good news is that he is walking more, the bad news is that he striking out a ton. This could be a result of trying to work deeper into the count and trying to find a good pitch to drive. He is also hitting more fly balls than in the past, so it is a safe bet that he surpasses the 24 home runs from his rookie season.
John Lackey (2-3, 5.06 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 53.1 IP, 42 K, 91% Ownership)
An early season injury sidelined the usually reliable Lackey for the first few weeks of the season. Based on his current stats, it looks like his is still working his arm into playing shape. But going forward there are some signs of why to buy low on him now. His K/9 rate is still well above the league average and his BABIP stands about fifty points above normal. This all ties into his FIP being nearly a run lower than his actual ERA. These numbers normally even out over the course of the season, so there is some incentive to acquire Lackey now.
Three to Sell
David Ortiz (.225/.321/.395, 87% Ownership)
Big Papi has hit like Little Papi for most of the season. However, he began to get hot during the month of June, which has made many of his owners feel that he is back on track. But the downside to his hot streak was that he got hot hitting mainly against the weaker National League pitching. Ortiz is still striking out way too much. He is also hitting more fly balls than in season’s pasts, yet hitting fewer home runs. Ortiz owners should use this hot streak to try and find as much value for him in a trade.
Brad Hawpe (.331/.404/.601, 87% Ownership)
Hawpe has been crushing the ball for Colorado this year. Although, Hawpe has the ability to be a productive player, he is bound to tail off during the second half of the season. His BABIP stands at .383, which means he has been quite lucky. Also, he is hitting fewer line drives than in the past. The biggest change so far is that Hawpe is hitting better versus left handed pitching after having a career line of .249/.320/.445 against them. Hawpe can still be a very valuable player, but it seems like he may be producing over his head at this point and there is a second half fade looming.
Tommy Hanson (4-0, 2.48 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 29.2 IP, 18 K, 57% Ownership)
This rookie phenom has won his last four starts and has not allowed a run in three of those starts. Because of this, it’s a great time to try and trade him. Rookie pitchers tend to struggle the more that the rest of the league gets to see more of them. Hanson has struggled with his control, as evidence by his 1.06 K/BB rate. It is a small sample size, but his FIP stands at nearly three runs above his actual ERA. Hanson’s value won’t get much higher than it is now, which means it’s a perfect time to move him.
Name to remember…Cameron Maybin, FLA.-OF. Maybin was sent down by Florida after he struggled the first six weeks of the season. His main problem was not being able to take a walk. It looks like the trip to the minors has done him some good. Maybin is sporting a healthy 25/19 strikeout to walk rate to go along with a .875 OPS. The overall power is not there yet, but the Marlins feel that will come with experience. If Maybin continues to show improvement, it might force Florida to bring him back to the majors and he could add some nice value to your fantasy roster during the second half of the season.
Buy & Sell – Puma Hunting
Buy & Sell
Note: Ownership is based in Yahoo! Leagues.
Three to Buy
Lance Berkman (.239/.372/.479, 97% Ownership)
Although Lance Berkman’s batting average has been a disappointment this season, his BB/K rate is excellent and the power is still there. There are a couple of signs that Berkman could be headed for a big second half of the season. Even though his BABIP stands at .247, Berkman has never had a BABIP below .300 in a season. This means that he has been hitting in a lot of bad luck so far in 2009 despite having virtually the same LD% as 2008. This could be a complete opposite from last season where Berkman raked during the first half and leveled off over the summer.
Adam LaRoche (.267/.363/.498, 31% Ownership)
A classic slow starter, LaRoche got off to better start this season only to tail off during April and May. A potential free agent next year, LaRoche has been rumored as the next Pittsburgh Pirate to be shipped out of town. That leaves a question about what hitting environment he will be in after the All-Star break. But for his career, LaRoche has a second half line of .297/.360/.548 so if he is available on the waiver wire, now might be the time to stash him on your bench.
Aaron Harang (5-7, 3.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 93.1 IP, 77 K, 82% Ownership)
From 2005-2007, Harang went from an under the radar to dominant fantasy pitcher. He suffered through a painful 2008, which scared off a lot of owners. It now appears that Harang is back to those previous levels. His K/9 and BB/9 rates are right in line with what he was doing in his past outstanding seasons. Going forward it looks like he can maintain this level of success because his FIP is almost exactly the same as his current ERA and his BABIP is right around league average. Acquiring Harang now will give your pitching staff a boost for the second half of the season.
Three to Sell
Michael Bourn (.294/.369/.412, 62% Ownership)
The Bourn Ultimatum has been pretty impressive so far this season considering how awful he was last year. The reason you have Bourn on your roster is for stolen bases, but if Bourn can’t get on base, it makes that skill null and void. With that said, Bourn is still striking out quite a bit. His BABIP of .369 is well above the league average, which means he has hit in a lot of luck so far this season. Another concern is that Bourn is hitting fewer ground balls this season and not trying to leg out base hits. I know some players can make dramatic improvements from year to year, but right now it appears that Bourn is playing way above his head.
Mark Reynolds (.263/.350/.546, 86% Ownership)
This slugging Diamondback has shown some improved skills so far in 2009. Despite his development, there are still some questions about his continued production. Obviously, his strikeouts are the most glaring worry as he is striking out 37.4% of the time. That tells us that his batting average will most likely continue to come down quite a bit. If that is the case, no matter how many home runs he hits, that low batting average will be a hindrance to your roster. One other point, Reynolds is also hitting fewer fly balls this season, which could lead to fewer home runs during the summer months.
Rick Porcello (8-4, 3.55 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 78.2 IP, 44 K, 56% Ownership)
Porcello has produced 8 wins through June 2009 despite being in only his second professional season. Not known as a strikeout pitcher, he uses a heavy sinker to get outs. Although Porcello has done well so far, there are many glaring question marks about him going forward. His BABIP is well below the league average and there is a huge discrepancy between his ERA and his 4.82 FIP. But the main thing to remember is that he is a very young pitcher and the Tigers are going to have to monitor his innings during the second half of the season. If this is a case, he will have fewer starts to make an impact on your roster.
Name to remember…Rajai Davis, Oak.-OF. For the time being, Davis has won the centerfield job in Oakland. With Rajai on your roster, he brings the threat of stolen bases as he stole 29 while playing for San Francisco and Oakland last year. Normally the Athletics have shown a distain for the stealing bases, but they must feel safe in letting Davis run as he has 9 SB in thirteen attempts so far this season. If he can start to get on base a little more, the more of an opportunity he will have to use his speed to aid in the stolen base category.
by Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
Buy & Sell – Stewy Time
Buy & Sell
By Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
Note: Ownership is based in Yahoo! Leagues.
Three to Buy
Adrian Beltre (.261/.293/.383, 57% Ownership)
The Seattle third baseman got off to a slow start the first couple of months of the season. But in the last few weeks, Beltre has begun to get it rolling as he has had fourteen hits in his last ten games and there are some positive signs ahead. For his career, Beltre has a .281/.336/.490 line after the All Star break and he is in a contract year. He won’t reach the status that he reached in the contract year of 2004, but there is still incentive enough for Beltre to keep it going.
Ian Stewart (.222/.308/.488, 43% Ownership)
Stewart has taken over the third base job in Colorado after the benching of Garrett Atkins. It is always a good strategy to have a Rockies position player on your roster, but what makes Stewart the most valuable is that in the Yahoo! format, he is eligible at 2B and 3B. The batting average isn’t all that appealing,, however, the Rockies will be playing more games at home this month, so that stat will be on the rise. To be able to put a player with a slugging percentage close to .500 in your middle infield slot will only make your roster that much better.
Javier Vazquez (4-6, 3.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 92.1 IP, 112 K, 92% Ownership)
The move from Cellular Field to Atlanta has agreed with Vazquez as his WHIP and ERA are considerably down this season. It seems like Vazquez gets lost every season when discussing the best pitchers in baseball, but he has thrown over two hundred innings the last four seasons and has struck out over 190 batters five different times in his career. His BABIP is a bit low, but nothing really that concerning since he has only walked 18 batters all season. His lack of name recognition may allow you to pilfer him from an unsuspecting owner.
Three to Sell
Ben Zobrist (.310/.420/.678, 85% Ownership)
Where did this come from? Zobrist has gone from a utility player to possible All Star for the Tampa Bay Rays. Let’s see, why don’t I believe in this turn around? Here are a couple of reasons: his Isolated Power of .368 is higher than the likes of Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, and Raul Ibanez. Zobrist’s HR/FB rate of 25% is higher than Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun. So we are talking about a fringe major league player producing stats equal to or better than some of the best in the game. Now might be the time to move Zobrist before he turns back into a pumpkin.
Justin Upton (.308/.391/567, 89% Ownership)
Upton has begun to live up to some of the lofty expectations that have been placed upon him the last few years. Although, I think he will still be productive the rest of the season, there are some warning signs that he may experience a drop off. He has an alarming strikeout rate of 27% and his .380 BABIP is way over the league average, so there will be an adjustment period ahead. I can understand why managers wouldn’t want to trade away someone like Upton. He is considered one of the best young players in the game, but his production is bound to fall off at some point this year.
Matt Cain (9-1, 2.39 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 86.1 IP, 68 K, 93% Ownership)
Cain has been able so far this season. He has teamed with Tim Lincecum to form one of the best young pitching duos in baseball. However, there are many concerns as Cain’s strike out rate has dropped from last season while his home run rate has risen. Also, he has a high strand rate meaning that he is allowing runners to get on base, but is getting out of some tough jams. Over the course of the season, more of those runners tend to score which will affect his ERA and possibly how many wins his receives. So far this season, Cain has produced like a number one starter after he was drafted to be a number two or three. Look for him to return to those draft predictions.
Name to remember…Andrew Miller, FLA.-SP. The highly regarded lanky left-hander has had some positive moments this season. The strike out potential is there, but control is still an issue as evidence by his 43/27 K/BB rate. The more that he gets to pitch at the major league level, though, the comfortable he looks as he has turned in three optimistic starts in a row. He is still a match up type pitcher and because of the control problems, those match ups can feel like a roller coaster at times. But he is still someone to target for later in the season and going forward into next year.
You may be wondering why Zobrist is on the “Sell” list so soon after a post the other day that encouraged readers to pick him up. Well, the simple answer is Hack and Johnny Archive don’t always agree, but we are both willing to support our positions.
-Johnny Archive
Hack’s List of Buy & Sell Players
Buy & Sell
by Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
Note: Ownership is based in Yahoo! Leagues.
Three to Buy
Lyle Overbay (.286/.388/.539, 11% Ownership)
Often overlooked because he doesn’t produce the typical power numbers that are usually associated with other first basemen, Overbay is putting up solid numbers once again. He provides reliable statistics in runs, RBI, and batting average. For those that play in daily leagues, Overbay is subject to a platoon against left-handers. But that isn’t necessarily a bad thing as he has a OPS over 1.000 versus right handers this year. Overbay wont single handily win your league for you, but he will provide solid production for your roster throughout the year.
Rick Ankiel (.261/.329/.483, 31% Ownership)
A nasty crash into an outfield wall pretty much derailed the first two months of the season for Ankiel. Now healthy, he is starting to get his timing back. Ankiel has put together a five game hitting streak, with four extra base hits during that span. It may take some time for the batting average to come around, but Ankiel is a good source of power going forward.
Jordan Zimmerman (2-3, 5.71 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 52 IP, 54 K, 12% Ownership)
The hyped preseason rookie has had some struggles so far this year for the Nationals. But, then again, what National pitcher hasn’t struggled this season? Despite the potholes there are actually some positives for Zimmerman. He has a healthy K/9 rate of 9.35 and a solid G/F rate of .85. What is really telling is his .329 BABIP, which shows that he has been pitching in a bit a bad luck so far. This isn’t that surprising as the National outfield defense is one of the worst in baseball, meaning there are a lot of fly balls dropping in for hits when the likes of Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn can’t get to them. Look for Zimmerman to post substantial numbers throughout the season.
Three to Sell
Chris Davis (.207/.266/.434, 75% Ownership)
The preseason hot pick for the hot corner, Davis has struggled mightily to find any consistency this season. Granted, the power has been there, but at what cost as he is on pace to shatter the single season strike out record. But the difference between Davis, and say Jack Cust, is that Cust draws his share of walks to go along with his strikeouts. This leads to Cust helping out in other categories. Davis has walked a ******** twelve times to go along with his 88 strikeouts. Throw in the fact that the Rangers have openly discussed sending Davis back to the minor leagues, its time to sell on Davis before his value is nonexistent.
Trevor Hoffman (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.47 WHIP, 17.0 IP, 15 K, 90% Ownership)
The all time saves leader is having a resurgence in Milwaukee. This is very surprising because most pitchers don’t go from struggling at spacious PETCO Park to dominating at a very hitter friendly Miller Park. But certainly, Hoffman has found the fountain of youth so far. The question is, will he continue at this pace? I tend to think that he can’t. His BABIP is extremely low at this point and I doubt that he will end the season with an ERA of 0.00. Hoffman may still rack up some saves due to the Brewers not having any other relief pitchers that can do the job. But those saves may come at a cost to your ERA and WHIP.
Russell Branyan (.319/.419/.628, 72% Ownership)
So far this season, Branyan has hit more like Lou Gehrig than the fringe major leaguer that Branyan has been for most of his career. What looks most suspect is that he is hitting over .300 against left handers this season after accumulating a .219/.303/.462 line for his career. This tells me that there is a steep drop off coming. Branyan will still get at bats because the Mariners don’t have anyone else to play first base and he might still pop a few home runs, but look for the batting average to fall significantly.
Name to remember…Scott Podsednik, CHIW.-OF. Scotty Pods has returned to the South Side and has began to contribute like it was 2005 again. He may not steal fifty bases like in the past, but he could still produce 20-25 stolen bases, which is very helpful to a fantasy roster. Look for White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen to continue to give Podsednik the green light on the base paths as the summer rolls on.
Buy & Sell – Ross is Boss
Buy & Sell
by Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
Note: Ownership is based in Yahoo! Leagues.
Three to Buy
Cody Ross (.255/.308/.453, 13% Ownership)
Ross has picked it up of late after coming out of the gates very slowly as he has been given the everyday centerfield job after the demotion of Cameron Maybin. Over the last ten days, Ross has improved hit batting average by over twenty points. Because of this, Ross has been hitting in the middle of lethal Marlins batting order, which means plenty of RBI opportunities. One thing to note in daily leagues: Ross has an OPS of .943 against left-handers this season. So if you are looking for a power-hitting outfielder, Ross may be your guy.
Jason Giambi (.217/.353/.389, 22% Ownership)
I know that the batting average isn’t very appealing, but the veteran Giambi has been hitting well of late. Remember last year, Giambi started out slowly only to turn it on over the summer and ended 2008 with 32 home runs. Managers should also note that in the month of June, Giambi has a career batting line of .299/.427/.586, which is his best in any month. For those Carlos Delgado owners who are looking for a replacement first baseman, Giambi should fill in nicely.
Carl Pavano (6-4, 4.63 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 72 IP, 56 K, 19% Ownership)
Once the scorn of Yankee fans, Pavano has begun to turn around his career while pitching for the Cleveland Indians. Pavano has pitched effectively since the beginning of May and has beaten some high-powered offenses in Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay. His stats could actually be even better as his .322 BABIP suggests that he has had some bad luck and bad defense played behind him. For all of his struggles and injuries while he was in New York, it is easy to forget that Pavano was in fact a quality pitcher for the Marlins. It looks like he could be reverting to that old form.
Three to Sell
Dan Haren (4-4, 2.42 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 78 IP, 78 K, 98% Ownership)
Haren has simply been dominating so far this season. That is precisely why owners should be looking to sell now. His .235 BABIP suggests that Haren could be in line for some troubling starts ahead. Also, it appears that Arizona has been pushing Haren pretty hard as he is among the league leaders in innings pitched. This could lead to Haren following his career pattern of fading during the second half of a season. For his career, his ERA before the All-Star break is 3.23 and after it is 4.12. Make the move now while the value is high.
Edwin Jackson (5-3, 2.30 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 74.1 IP, 57 K, 79% Ownership)
Jackson has turned it all together this season. He has gone from being madly inconsistent to one of the best pitchers in the American League. This is one of the reasons why I am not trusting Mr. Jackson. We have six seasons of data and Jackson has never produced results close to what he is doing now. He has a very low BABIP of .245, which means he has been very fortunate so far. Considering that Jackson is pitching in the rough and tumble American League, it is reasonable to think that he will revert to his previous self.
Dustin Pedroia (.321/.415/.426, 98% Ownership)
Pedroia was drafted aggressively coming of his MVP season of 2008. But we don’t really know if 2008 is going to be his standard season or if it was an outlier. What would worry me if I owned Pedroia is that Boston has moved him to the lead off spot. This will cut down is RBI chances, which obviously brings down his value. Also, if not for the struggles of David Ortiz, fans would be complaining about Pedroia’s power outage. He has hit only two home runs so far and looks more like the 2007 Pedroia rather than the all around contributor from 2008.
Name to remember…Ryan Madson, Phil.-RP. Closer Brad Lidge has battled a knee injury that has caused him to struggle this season. Because of this, Madson may get moved into the closer role. He certainly is accustomed to pitching in big moments, as he was a key member of last year’s World Series team. Madson also has the stuff to be a closer. He has a K/9 rate of 9.57 so even if doesn’t take over the closer role, he will provide strikeouts and help out the ratio stats for your team.
Buy & Sell – Heading into June
Buy & Sell
by Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
Note: Ownership is based in Yahoo! Leagues.
Three to Buy
Jerry Hairston Jr. (.264/.319/.481, 30% Ownership)
There are a few reasons to like Hairston in terms of fantasy. First, he is batting second ahead of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce which means he has the potential to score a ton of runs. Secondly, in the Yahoo! format, Hairston is eligible at 2B, 3B, SS, and OF. This gives a manager quite a bit of flexibility when setting a roster for a particular day. Thirdly, he is producing right around his career line of .260/.330/.374. If he can remain healthy, Hairston should provide solid value from a player that went undrafted in most leagues.
Luke Scott (.311/.398/.544, 9% Ownership)
Fresh of a DL stint, Scott returned to Baltimore’s line up and delivered a few home runs. Scott’s BB/K rate is much healthier than it has been in the past, so that will need to be watched. But his home run totals has increased each of the last three years, so the power potential is there. Although the Orioles deploy a strict platoon with Scott, it is pretty clear that he can provide solid production as a fifth outfielder for most fantasy teams.
Scott Baker (2-5, 6.32 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 47 IP, 35 K, 46% Ownership)
Many fantasy managers jumped off the Scott Baker struggled immensely to begin the year. Struggle is putting it nicely as he has already given up twelve home runs. But Baker is coming off a good start against the Brewers in which he made some mechanical adjustments. For his career, Baker’s post-All Star break ERA is 3.87 with a .269 batting average against. All the signs point to this being the right time to buy low on Baker as it looks like he is poised for a big second half.
Three to Sell
Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-3, 8.82 ERA, 2.33, 89% Ownership)
Daisuke has been injured for most of the year, but even when he has been able to toe the rubber, he hasn’t been very impressive. Although, some how Daisuke won 18 games last year, there really isn’t much upside. Because of all the walks, he destroys your WHIP and because of high pitch counts he doesn’t pitch deep into games, the opportunities for wins is decreased. There might be a manager trying to buy low on Daisuke because of last year’s success, my advice is to go ahead and let them.
Marco Scutaro (.291/.403/.449, 82% Ownership)
Is it possible that in another life Scutaro was really Honus Wagner? Probably not. Scutaro has gone from a reserve infielder to being one of the best shortstops in the American League. Never mind the fact that is current OPS of .852 is nearly one hundred points greater then that of his career (.715). Or that 2008 was the first time in his eight-year career that he received over five hundred at bats and produced middling results. For those who picked up Scutaro off the waiver wire, be prepared for him to fall back to earth quickly.
Michael Cuddyer (.284/.371/.517, 54% Ownership)
Cuddyer has been one of the most added players in fantasy baseball over the last few days and rightly so as he has started to turn it on at the plate. The numbers, however, say this hot streak is unsustainable. Cuddyer’s ground ball rate has increased by leaps and bounds to 1.20 which means he is getting somewhat lucky on the few balls he does actually hit into the air. While he will can still serve as a serviceable fifth outfielder, owners shouldn’t ask for much more.
Name to remember…Andy LaRoche, Pit.-3B. Adam’s younger brother is starting to make a name for himself. Always a highly touted prospect coming up through the Dodgers’ system he is finally being given a chance at a full time job. This season, LaRoche is showing a good BB/K rate, which was prevalent in the minors, and has lead to a solid batting average. The power hasn’t shown yet, but as he continues to grow as a hitter, LaRoche is capable of producing at a twenty home run clip.
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