Two posts in one day!?!  Holy multiple reading options Batman!

I know, I know.  But hey, I’m starting to get that little tingle in my tum-tum — and no it’s not gas!

And yes, I’m going to start getting into some actual numbers.  Last year, I went back and forth, sometimes I put in too much math and other times not enough.  Writing a good fantasy baseball post is kinda like making a batch of spaghetti, too much sauce and it turns into a sloppy joe mix, not enough sauce and it’s like mac & cheese, less the cheese part.

So, let’s see if we can add the proper amount of numbers to justify my thinking without putting you to sleep.

I’m going to start by talking about MY keepers from the JAIL league.  We can keep up to 3 player from last year’s team, 1 from each tier/round of the 2008 draft.  The tiers are 1-7 / 8-14 / 15-26.  If you chose to keep a player who went undrafted, he counted towards your 15-26 tier as your 26th round pick.  That’s the other twist: you lose the round of the player in 2008.  For example, if you kept a 1st rounder from last year, you give up your 1st round pick in this year’s draft.

I know alot of leagues use various types of keeper systems, but at this point, I really like how we’re doing this.  It allows owners to keep enough players to build around, while not draining the draft pool so much that any new owners have almost no shot of getting anyone good.  It also challenges owners to make some tough decisions.

For example, A-Rod could have been kept in exchange for the 6th overall selection in this year’s draft, but the owner elected not to keep him.  Instead, he decided to keep B.J. Upton and give up his 3rd rounder.  This may look strange now, but if A-Rod folds under the pressure this year and BJ continues to improve and put up round 1 or 2 production, this could be a major boom for his team.  We shall see how it plays out.

Another interesting dilemma I thought was dealing with the top overall pick in the draft.  The team that had that spot elected to keep Albert Pujols and give up the #1 pick.  Couple things come to mind: He didn’t know exactly who was being kept by other owners, so he didn’t know was going to be available. And how risky is Pooh-Bear this year health wise?  Again, time will tell how this plays out.  I just like that the owners were faced with tough calls. I mean, hey, the JAIL is all about toughness.

Oh yeah, some other yahoo had a decision to make in round uno.  What would you have done?  Remember that the JAIL is a 14-team mixed 5X5 league.  I had Ryan Howard on my team who would cost me my 1st rounder this year, and because I won the league in 2008 (Oh yeah, I’m still milkin’ it, baby!) that meant it would be the last 1st rounder, pick #14.

I obtained Howard last season with about 7 weeks or so to go in the season.  I gave up Ryan Braun for him, who was my 1st round pick in 2008.  At the time, Braun was dealing with a back issue that had kept him out of a few games and Howard was still trying to overcome an absolutely horrible start to the season.   I also knew that Howard has proven to be a pretty good 2nd half, more specifically Aug/Sept, player and I need a little punch in my power categories.

The trade worked out well for me as Howard stayed hot for most of August, basically carrying my team offensively.  Braun put up some good numbers as well, so the deal helped both teams overall.

So, I have some favorable feelings when it comes to Howard, probably much more so than others who drafted him and endured his full season numbers, which included 3 AVG-wrecking months (April .168/May .238/June .234) to start the season.  At #14, that’s about where alot of people think Howard will be drafted, though many people feel his low AVG should drop him into the 2nd round and just out of the elite player status.

I decided to keep him, focusing on the fact that his lowest HR total for a season, in the last 3 years, was 47 in 2007.  That year he had his lowest RBI total as well, 136, compared to ’06 and ’08 when he tallied 149 and 146.  It’s true, he has punished his owners in AVG and SO the last couple of seasons, though we don’t use Strikeouts as a category in the JAIL, so no biggie.  But this guy hit .313 in ’06 in 704 PA, so I’m looking for a bit of a rebound in ’09.  I’m not expecting or needing .300+, but more like .275ish.  Especially if that is bundled with a his normal bucket of HR/RBIs.

My advice is to play up his poor start during pre-draft bantering and then snag yourself a bargain the late 1st or 2nd round.

My tier #2 player was about as much a no-brainer as there is, I think.  Cubs catcher, Geo Soto, in place of a 12th rounder is pretty-close to eternal fantasy bliss.  I’ll even take a sophomore drop-off from his ’08 numbers (494AB/.285/23HR/86RBI) and still be very satisfied.  Catchers continue to be one of the biggest reasons fantasy owners typically go through more malox/advil/paxil in a season then most LA suburbs put together.  I won’t lie, I’m quite happy to enter the season with my catching taken care of, regardless of whom I get to pair with Geo.

If you remember, I actually made catching a priority last year when I snagged Joe Mauer and Russell Martin in my 411 league.  I’m going to talk more in the upcoming weeks about Martin and his percieved huge dropoff last year.  I would guess most Martin owners felt major drafter’s remorse after the season.  His numbers (650 PA/13HR/69RBI/18SB) were lower than his ’07 stats (620PA/19HR/87RBI/21), but that’s only part of the story.  He was another player who got off to a slow start and so by the time he started contributing, it was probably too late for his fantasy owners.

My final keeper was Nelson Cruz who was called up by the Rangers after absolutely tearing up triple A.  Not only was Cruz putting huge power numbers in minors (448PA/37HR/18DBL/99RBI/) but he stole 24 bags!  He continued to perform in the Bigs adding another 9 HRs, 26 RBIs and 3 SBs, while hitting .330.   At 28, he’s still fairly young and opportunity is sitting at his feet, well at least ABs are anyway.  A good start will essentially cement his place on the roster for the ’09 season.  (*drools* at the prospect of a full season of stats from him in that ballpark)

Overall, like most people at this time of the year, I’m quite happy with my 3 keepers going into the draft.  I’ll touch on some of the other teams and the players they did and did NOT keep in the next few days.

I have updated my BlogTalkRadio.com page and scheduled several upcoming shows, including a special draft episode on Saturday, February 28th.  Yep, I’m getting back in the swing of things now.  I’ve kissed my wife and kids and told them I’ll see’m in September sometime! heh

-JA