Results tagged ‘ Ryan Braun ’
Young Chase
Players On The Spot
Chase Headley-The San Diego Padres’ Most Important Hitter
Headley arrived in the major leagues with post-Ryan Braun hype, meaning any minor leaguer with any type of hype was expected to immediately rake at the major league level like Braun. But things haven’t worked out well for Headley as he settles in for his third season with the Padres. He hasn’t hit for the power everyone expected and while some of that can be blamed on PETCO Park, Headley has hit more groundballs and made less contact than the league average. These characteristics don’t lend well to a corner outfielder and a middle of the order hitter.
So with all of this uncertainty and negativity surrounding Headley, why is he so important to San Diego? First, Headley is going to be the man hitting behind All Star Adrian Gonzalez. If Headley continues to struggle, opposing teams will simply pitch around Gonzalez and not allow the Padres one great hitter to beat them. Second, Headley has played left field the last two years, but played third in the minors. So over the winter the Padres traded away their only other power source, outside of Gonzalez, in Kevin Kouzmanoff, to free up third base. There is some thought around baseball that having Headley play an unnatural position caused him to struggle at the plate. Whatever the reason, this it is Headley’s position to loose and if he struggles expect the Padres struggles to continue as well.
Players On The Spot
Delmon Young-The Days May Be Dwindling
I really wanted to start off by making a Young and the Restless reference, but that kind of thing is as tired as Young’s game itself. Delmon is a very talented player, although he has yet to really follow through on that talent. There are some obvious things wrong with his game, most notably plate discipline. Last season, Young struck out 92 times while walking only in 12 plate appearances. I don’t care what type of league you are playing in, that’s not good. This lack of judgment caused Young to not find pitches he can drive, which lead to his Jack Wilson-like OPS. Yet, with all this said, Young is still only 24 years old so he still has time to develop his game.
The Minnesota Twins need Young to deliver this season to add some right-handed balance to the likes of Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel. But this is also a significant season for Young on a personal level as well. There is usually a series of measures that teams do when a young player struggles. Organizations will send a player back to the minors, bench them, change positions, bring in another player for competition and finally trade the struggling player. Looking back over Young’s short career, he has already gone through most of those. So in actuality this may be Young’s last shot at a starting job at the major league level. His days as an arbitration eligible player are coming to an end, which means his chances of cashing in on a big time contract are becoming less and less. More importantly, this may be his last opportunity to become an All Star rather than a bust that had tremendous amount of potential.
-Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
Where Did All the Outfielders Go?
Where Did All the Outfielders Go?
by Matt “Hack” Hackenmiller
On draft day, most fantasy baseball managers like to go after a couple of top tier outfielders during the early rounds of the draft. There is a misconception that the outfield position is a deep one considering each major league team starts three each game. But when platoon situations and offensive struggles are figured in, there aren’t many elite outfielders available. I like to follow this strategy because normally the outfield position thins out quickly and it becomes difficult to find quality players to fill the five outfield spots on a roster. Through the first quarter of this season, this particular approach has not been very effective because of some of the struggles the top tier outfielders have had. Below is a list of the preseason top ten outfielders and how they have faired so far this season.
1. Grady Sizemore-Injured
2. Ryan Braun
3. Josh Hamilton-Injured
4. Carlos Beltrán
5. B.J. Upton-Injured & struggled
6. Alfonso Soriano
7. Carlos Lee
8. Manny Ramírez-Suspended
9. Carlos Quentin-Injured
10. Carl Crawford
As you can see from the list, half of the top ten outfielders have not produced as expected whether it has been because of injuries, offensive struggles, or because of taking some medication that “prescribed” by a doctor. Managers might have been better off passing on these players and drafting from the second tier of outfielders.
11. Nick Markakis
12. Ichiro Suzuki
13. Jason Bay
14. Matt Kemp
15. Carlos Quentin-Injured
16. Matt Holliday
There was even more depth in the draft as the following outfielders are producing like the top players in the position
113. Torii Hunter
122. Raúl Ibañez
124. Nelson Cruz
132. Brad Hawpe
179. Adam Jones
What has occurred with the players from the top tier is almost certainly a fluke. Very rarely will injuries beset as many top players as is happening this season. With that said, I think we can come away with a couple important ideas based on this information. First, there is a lot of the baseball season left which means there is plenty of time for those struggling players in the top tier to improve. I find it hard to believe that players with the track records like Sizemore and Upton will continue to play this poorly. Secondly, on draft day, don’t panic if you miss out on some of the elite players. Continue to try and find value to add depth to your roster and you might be pleasantly surprised by some of the players you discover.
Shhhhh, I’m Rabbit Hunting
What a great weekend! I debuted the first Johnny Archive Fantasy Baseball Show podcast of the season on Sunday and from all the positive feedback, it went very well. I forgot how much I enjoy doing my li’l show.
I’m planning on having even more guests this year, so stay tuned for news about who’ll be stopping by for a chat with Johnny Archive. There are alot of solid fantasy sports personalities out there and I want to interview as many as I can to get their take on the state of fantasy sports and perhaps what the future holds for the industry.
In particular, Jeff Erickson of Rotowire.com is someone who has been around the fantasy game long enough to see the industry go through many changes and/or improvements. Jeff was nice enough to stop by the podcast this weekend and unofficially agreed to come on the show as a featured guest sometime soon. As soon as I get him confirmed, I’ll let everyone know, as this will be an important event.
So, Archive, what’s this stuff about rabbits? I’m glad you asked. This time of the year, I am starting to formulate my pre-draft lists of players that I will be keeping an eye on. One step in that process for me is glancing over the MLB rosters and looking for players who I feel have perceptive values that is considerably off of what I think their actual value is. I call these players “rabbits” because they are hard to locate and can be somewhat shy.
Usually they are players who the masses are down on, but are not nearly as bad or risky as the mainstream fantasiers think they are. By the way, if you missed the podcast you missed me reporting my unveiling of a new word that I created and submitted to Webster’s Open Dictionary. What’s the word? Fantasiers! Check out the online dictionary to see exactly what it means. Actually, I just looked and the word is not added to the dictionary yet. Keep checking though, as it should be anytime.
Alright, back to the rabbit hunting. I don’t spend too much time on a player, I just make a note if someone pops out, then I dig in and see if they are indeed worthy of being added to my main “must get” list. Let’s start in Colorado…
#19 Ryan Spilborghs, RF COL
Ryan is not exaclty a proven commodity, but mining for production from somewhat unknown players who reside in Colorado has certainly shown results in the past. Hrmm, 29, a little older than I remembered, but if he gets ABs, he might be a nice “get” this year. He hit .313 last year with 6 HR and 36 RBI in 233 ABs…and he went 7/11 in SBs, though his highest total in the minors was only 17 SB for 1 year. In ’07, he hit .299 in 264 ABs with 11 HR and 51 RBI. I picked him a few times last year when I needed a bat, perhaps that’s the best way to use him, rather than to count on him as a starter.
#2 Troy Tulowitzki, SS
Here’s a name people know, even casual baseball fans. Well, they did after the ’07 season anyway. Last year was a mess for T-ROY (I coined this name for him and it would’ve stuck if not for Ryan Braun winning the ROY in ’07! grrr so close). Not only did he suffer a ton of injuries that kept him pretty-much on the DL all year, but the injuries came just as he was starting to get his bat going, so he never really got locked in at the plate. It’s funny, I actually predicted Tulo would be over-drafted and over-valued in ’08, coming off his excellent rookie season mainly because of all the exposure he got in the World Series run for the Rox.
Then I had an opportunity to get him fairly cheap in a trade, so I started to root for him. It didn’t help, he just couldn’t stay healthy. I ended up moving him late in the season because he still had decent value as a keeper. Which brings us to 2009, might he now become a little (6’3″) rabbit just sitting there quietly?
He wont be 25 until October, so this dude has plenty of time to heal, get stronger and make ’07 a bad footnote. A quick check of his AVG draft position over at CBSSports.com shows us that he is being drafted about 138 overall, and for about $9 in mixed auction leagues. Yep, he’s a fine wabbit candidate. His ’07 numbers were lucious .291/ 24 HR/ 99 RBI/ 104 R in 609 ABs. Then the ’08 debacle hit 377 ABs/ 8 HR/ 46 RBI/ 48 R/ 1 SB ewwwww. But again, I watched alot of his games and he played banged-up all season.
How far has Tulo fallen? In 2008, he was drafted in round 4, the 50th overall, and I’d say that was close to his average draft position for last year. So, is it fair that he should fall 83 spots?! I don’t think so, even with the loss of Matt Holliday to the lineup.
#9 Ian Stewart, 3B
Yep, this is the same Ian Stewart we’ve all been waiting for to take over a corner spot for the Rockies for the past 3 years. 2009 should be the year, after all, team management is scaling down the payroll and some of the big names guys will be moved. Right? Matt Holliday is sent packing. Check. Who’s going next? Garrett Atkins or the aging Todd Helton? Tick, tick, tick… Buzzzz Wrong! They’re both staying. Uh-oh. Now what is going to happen with Stewart? He didn’t really pan out at 2B (12 games in 2008) and Clint Barmes seems to have secured that position. Pitcher is probably not the answer, and the same is more-than-likely true for Catcher. SS? Hardly. So, what’s left? Quarterback? Oops, wrong sport. Yep, he’s been taking some reps in the outfield.
When he was getting ABs last year he did show some power 10 HR/ 41 RBI though he hit only .259. This could be a case where a player finds some ABs, gets hot and then an organization is willing to live with some defensive woes. For Ian’s case, let’s hope so. Otherwise he better hope that Helton’s body continues to erode.
Geeez, tons of phone calls and distractions as I write today, so we’ll wrap this puppy up. Don’t worry, we’ll do plenty more of this sorta thing in the near future.
-Johnny Archive
Keeping Up With Keepers
Two posts in one day!?! Holy multiple reading options Batman!
I know, I know. But hey, I’m starting to get that little tingle in my tum-tum — and no it’s not gas!
And yes, I’m going to start getting into some actual numbers. Last year, I went back and forth, sometimes I put in too much math and other times not enough. Writing a good fantasy baseball post is kinda like making a batch of spaghetti, too much sauce and it turns into a sloppy joe mix, not enough sauce and it’s like mac & cheese, less the cheese part.
So, let’s see if we can add the proper amount of numbers to justify my thinking without putting you to sleep.
I’m going to start by talking about MY keepers from the JAIL league. We can keep up to 3 player from last year’s team, 1 from each tier/round of the 2008 draft. The tiers are 1-7 / 8-14 / 15-26. If you chose to keep a player who went undrafted, he counted towards your 15-26 tier as your 26th round pick. That’s the other twist: you lose the round of the player in 2008. For example, if you kept a 1st rounder from last year, you give up your 1st round pick in this year’s draft.
I know alot of leagues use various types of keeper systems, but at this point, I really like how we’re doing this. It allows owners to keep enough players to build around, while not draining the draft pool so much that any new owners have almost no shot of getting anyone good. It also challenges owners to make some tough decisions.
For example, A-Rod could have been kept in exchange for the 6th overall selection in this year’s draft, but the owner elected not to keep him. Instead, he decided to keep B.J. Upton and give up his 3rd rounder. This may look strange now, but if A-Rod folds under the pressure this year and BJ continues to improve and put up round 1 or 2 production, this could be a major boom for his team. We shall see how it plays out.
Another interesting dilemma I thought was dealing with the top overall pick in the draft. The team that had that spot elected to keep Albert Pujols and give up the #1 pick. Couple things come to mind: He didn’t know exactly who was being kept by other owners, so he didn’t know was going to be available. And how risky is Pooh-Bear this year health wise? Again, time will tell how this plays out. I just like that the owners were faced with tough calls. I mean, hey, the JAIL is all about toughness.
Oh yeah, some other yahoo had a decision to make in round uno. What would you have done? Remember that the JAIL is a 14-team mixed 5X5 league. I had Ryan Howard on my team who would cost me my 1st rounder this year, and because I won the league in 2008 (Oh yeah, I’m still milkin’ it, baby!) that meant it would be the last 1st rounder, pick #14.
I obtained Howard last season with about 7 weeks or so to go in the season. I gave up Ryan Braun for him, who was my 1st round pick in 2008. At the time, Braun was dealing with a back issue that had kept him out of a few games and Howard was still trying to overcome an absolutely horrible start to the season. I also knew that Howard has proven to be a pretty good 2nd half, more specifically Aug/Sept, player and I need a little punch in my power categories.
The trade worked out well for me as Howard stayed hot for most of August, basically carrying my team offensively. Braun put up some good numbers as well, so the deal helped both teams overall.
So, I have some favorable feelings when it comes to Howard, probably much more so than others who drafted him and endured his full season numbers, which included 3 AVG-wrecking months (April .168/May .238/June .234) to start the season. At #14, that’s about where alot of people think Howard will be drafted, though many people feel his low AVG should drop him into the 2nd round and just out of the elite player status.
I decided to keep him, focusing on the fact that his lowest HR total for a season, in the last 3 years, was 47 in 2007. That year he had his lowest RBI total as well, 136, compared to ’06 and ’08 when he tallied 149 and 146. It’s true, he has punished his owners in AVG and SO the last couple of seasons, though we don’t use Strikeouts as a category in the JAIL, so no biggie. But this guy hit .313 in ’06 in 704 PA, so I’m looking for a bit of a rebound in ’09. I’m not expecting or needing .300+, but more like .275ish. Especially if that is bundled with a his normal bucket of HR/RBIs.
My advice is to play up his poor start during pre-draft bantering and then snag yourself a bargain the late 1st or 2nd round.
My tier #2 player was about as much a no-brainer as there is, I think. Cubs catcher, Geo Soto, in place of a 12th rounder is pretty-close to eternal fantasy bliss. I’ll even take a sophomore drop-off from his ’08 numbers (494AB/.285/23HR/86RBI) and still be very satisfied. Catchers continue to be one of the biggest reasons fantasy owners typically go through more malox/advil/paxil in a season then most LA suburbs put together. I won’t lie, I’m quite happy to enter the season with my catching taken care of, regardless of whom I get to pair with Geo.
If you remember, I actually made catching a priority last year when I snagged Joe Mauer and Russell Martin in my 411 league. I’m going to talk more in the upcoming weeks about Martin and his percieved huge dropoff last year. I would guess most Martin owners felt major drafter’s remorse after the season. His numbers (650 PA/13HR/69RBI/18SB) were lower than his ’07 stats (620PA/19HR/87RBI/21), but that’s only part of the story. He was another player who got off to a slow start and so by the time he started contributing, it was probably too late for his fantasy owners.
My final keeper was Nelson Cruz who was called up by the Rangers after absolutely tearing up triple A. Not only was Cruz putting huge power numbers in minors (448PA/37HR/18DBL/99RBI/) but he stole 24 bags! He continued to perform in the Bigs adding another 9 HRs, 26 RBIs and 3 SBs, while hitting .330. At 28, he’s still fairly young and opportunity is sitting at his feet, well at least ABs are anyway. A good start will essentially cement his place on the roster for the ’09 season. (*drools* at the prospect of a full season of stats from him in that ballpark)
Overall, like most people at this time of the year, I’m quite happy with my 3 keepers going into the draft. I’ll touch on some of the other teams and the players they did and did NOT keep in the next few days.
I have updated my BlogTalkRadio.com page and scheduled several upcoming shows, including a special draft episode on Saturday, February 28th. Yep, I’m getting back in the swing of things now. I’ve kissed my wife and kids and told them I’ll see’m in September sometime! heh
-JA
Freaky Friday
It’s that favorite day, the day when everyone is happy and gay! Well, you know what I mean. Unfortunately, I am being pulled in several different directions these days with my boys starting school, some other real-life issues and, of course, football season just around the corner. So, my writing time is being severly reduced. Boooo.
I should be back to normal next week, just in time to gear up for the sprint to the finish in fantasy baseball. Of course, you can always get your Johnny Archive fix by checking out my podcasts over at BlogTalkRadio.com. The links are just over there. ———->
I did make a couple of trades in the JAIL league. I have built up a 17 Save league, so it was definitely time to unload some closers since I had seven of them. So, here’s what I did:
I traded away Ryan Braun, Jonathan Broxton and Brad Ziegler for Ryan Howard and Aubrey Huff.
I traded away B.J. Ryan and Brian Fuentes for King Felix.
Not only will these deals help my team with the addition of the new players, but by adding Saves to my trading partners, I hopefully have placed some Saves which may help me as well.
Have a great weekend and I’ll be doing my Friday Night Football podcast tonight at 9:30PM ET and The Johnny Archive Fantasy Baseball Show on Sunday morning at 11:30AM ET. Tune in if you can!
-Johnny Archive
Griffey Jr To Ride Big Brown?
Hello there,
It’s Tuesday and let’s get this party started.
The fingers are pointing in all kinds of directions following Big Brown’s horrible performance at the Belmont Stakes this past Saturday. The latest jab has the trainer blaming the jockey for a poor ride. My first reaction is, like most, to be appalled. I mean, after all, this is the same trainer who openly gave his horse steroids and has been punished by the racing commission for various infractions over the years.
But you know after watching the race and seeing all the trouble Big Brown got into in the first turn, then how wide he was taken out in the back stretch and far turn, I have to ask myself who made those decisions during the race? I don’t blame the jock’ for easing the horse during the stretch, as there was nothing to be gained by whipping the horse at that point.
Jockeys get a lot of praise when their horse wins, so is it unreasonable to blame them when the horse was healthy and didn’t get the job done?
—-
Junior gets number 600. Yawn, I mean, Grats! Anyone else notice how forced it felt by the media to make it a big deal? Obviously, ESPN and FOX, as well as MLB as a whole just didn’t seem to have the same pizzazz for celebrating a big homer this year after last season’s anti-climatic crowning of the new homerun king, Barry Bonds.
Even though there is absolutely no doubt — of course was there any doubt about Roger Clemens before last year? — that Junior Griffey was clean his entire career, he is a victim of playing during the steroids era.
It also doesn’t help that Griffey limped, literally, into the milestone. He is hardly the player he was just a few years ago. He plays for a team that is not expected to contend and doesn’t do a lot, good or bad, to get his name in the paper. Kinda reminds me of when Don Sutton reached 300 wins a few years ago. Sure, it was a big accomplishment, but he was no Nolan Ryan or Greg Maddux and it felt more like a relief when he finally reached the goal rather than an occasion to celebrate.
There’s no doubt players like Sutton and Griffey have the respect of the media, fans and their peers and will someday be inducted into the Hall of Fame. But they seemed to wait too long to reach their goals, though in Grif’s case it wasn’t his fault, it was the injuries. I know it isn’t right and perhaps nobody else will admit to it, certainly not anyone associated with MLB. But then again, just how many MLB officials were on hand for the rare homer?
—-
I have made 4 trades, most of them fairly major, since I took over first place in the JAIL league. As someone who has been accused of doing too many trades, this little stunt would seem to validate that assumption. But I don’t really have a sense of trader’s remorse, which I do usually get in the following days after I feel I made too risky of a deal. I have continued to do deals that I felt enhanced my teams value, even if slightly.
My latest blockbuster involved Miggy Cabrera; yes, the same player I just obtained in another deal last week. So, why move him so soon after I gave up Albert Pujols for him? Well, here’s the full trade: Cabrera, Johjima, Rauch and Wheeler for Johan Santana, Soto and Helton.
After giving up 2 of my 5 closers, I still have F. Cordero, B.J. Ryan and S. Torres, which I feel are my 3 most secure. I could see a scenario where in a few weeks Rauch and Wheeler would no longer be closers and thus have much less value.
Also on my team – and one of my primary starters – was Adam Wainwright who is now on the DL. He wasn’t on the DL before I made the deal, but there was a good chance he would be. Not that I got Santana simply to fill in for Wainwright. No, not at all, actually I am doing quite well in the pitching categories since I have John Lackey and Dan Haren also on my team (also brought in via trades). As the temperature goes up, so usually do MLB pitcher’s ERA and WHIP. I wanted to lock in 4 of the 5 pitching categories going into the 2nd half of the season, and who better to accomplish that than Santana, the best pitcher in baseball.
I am taking a huge risk by dealing a player like Cabrera who has been underperforming and could carry a fantasy team with a huge hot streak. But I am hoping to offset that risk with the stability of Helton and Soto. I understand that Soto will more than likely cool off after his hot start, but if I get another 8-10 HRs from him and a 270-ish average from him, I’ll be happy. That should be a decent improvement over Johjima, as Seattle is about to begin a fire sale which will deplete an already struggling Mariner offense.
I think doing this trade makes my position safer than banking on Cabrera, who has changed positions in the field and doesn’t look comfortable at the plate. I am counting on Ryan Braun, Cory Hart and Alex Rios for most of my power…so we’ll see how it plays out.
Well, there ya go – horse racing, baseball and fantasy baseball all in one post.
See you tomorrow for Good News, Bad News.
-Johnny Archive
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